Bank of Japan Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images

Ловушка инфляционного таргетирования

БРЮССЕЛЬ – У центральных банков проблема: рост во многих странах мира ускоряется, но инфляция не сдвинулась с места. Конечно, для большинства людей рост без инфляции – идеальное сочетание. Но центральные банки поставили перед собой цель достичь уровня инфляции «немного меньше 2%», согласно формулировке Европейского центрального банка. И на данный момент трудно понять, как этого достичь.

Центральные банки никогда не делали вид, будто могут управлять инфляцией напрямую. Но они думали, что, предоставляя низкие процентные ставки и выгодные условия ликвидности после глобального финансового кризиса 2008 года, они могут подстегнуть рост инвестиций и потребления. В 2009 году, когда на финансовых рынках царило смятение, а экономика падала, Федеральная резервная система США сделала следующий шаг, начав крупномасштабные покупки активов или количественное смягчение (КС). ЕЦБ последовал этому примеру в 2014-2015 годах, когда еврозоне якобы угрожала дефляция (на самом деле, как оказалось, это было не так).

Действия ФРС, безусловно, помогли стабилизировать финансовые рынки. ЕЦБ также утверждает, что покупка им облигаций после того, как финансовые рынки уже нормализовались, стимулировала экономический рост и способствовала занятости. Но на этом все и закончилось.

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