Bank of Japan Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images

La Trappola dell’Obiettivo di Inflazione

BRUXELLES – Le banche centrali hanno un problema: in gran parte del mondo la crescita é in accelerazione, ma l’inflazione non è riuscita a decollare. Ovviamente, per la maggior parte delle persone, la crescita senza inflazione è la combinazione ideale. Le banche centrali, tuttavia, si sono poste l’obiettivo di raggiungere un tasso di inflazione “inferiore, ma vicino al 2%”, secondo le dichiarazioni della Banca Centrale Europea. E, a questo punto, è difficile capire come lo si possa raggiungere.

Le banche centrali non hanno mai preteso di poter orientare direttamente l’inflazione. Esse pensavano però che, con l’offerta di tassi di interesse a livelli minimi e generose condizioni di liquidità sulla scia della crisi finanziaria globale del 2008, avrebbero potuto spingere al rialzo investimenti e consumi. Nel 2009, quando i mercati finanziari erano in tumulto e l’economia in caduta libera, la Federal Reserve americana ha compiuto un passo avanti, avviando acquisti di asset su larga scala, anche noti come quantitative easing (QE). Nel 2014-2015, allorché sembrava (erroneamente, a posteriori) che la deflazione minacciasse l’area euro, la BCE ne ha seguito l’esempio.

Le misure della Fed hanno contribuito certamente a stabilizzare i mercati finanziari. La BCE inoltre sostiene che i suoi acquisti obbligazionari, dopo che i mercati finanziari erano già stati normalizzati, abbiano innescato la crescita economica e favorito l’occupazione. Ma l’impatto si è fermato lì.

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