Bank of Japan Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images

Falle Inflationsziel

BRÜSSEL – Die Notenbanken haben ein Problem: Das Wachstum in den meisten Teilen der Welt beschleunigt sich, aber die Inflation bleibt niedrig. Für die meisten Leute ist Wachstum ohne Inflation natürlich die ideale Kombination. Aber die Notenbanken haben als Ziel vorgegeben, eine Inflationsrate von „unter, aber in der Nähe von 2%“ zu erreichen, wie es die Europäische Zentralbank formuliert. Und zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt ist schwer erkennbar, wie sich das umsetzen lässt.

Die Notenbanken haben nie vorgegeben, die Inflation direkt steuern zu können. Doch sie dachten, dass sie, indem sie im Gefolge der globalen Finanzkrise von 2008 ultraniedrige Zinssätze festlegten und großzügige Liquiditätsbedingungen schufen, Investitionen und Konsum ankurbeln könnten. Im Jahr 2009, als die Finanzmärkte in Turbulenzen steckten und sich die Wirtschaft im freien Fall befand, ging die US Federal Reserve noch einen Schritt weiter und leitete einen umfangreichen Ankauf von Vermögenswerten ein, die sogenannte quantitative Lockerung. Die EZB folgte in den Jahren 2014-2015 ihrem Beispiel, als eine Deflation die Eurozone zu bedrohen schien (was sich im Nachhinein als falsch erwies).

Die Maßnahmen der Fed trugen mit Sicherheit zur Stabilisierung der Finanzmärkte bei. Die EZB behauptet ebenfalls, dass ihre Anleihekäufe nach bereits erfolgter Finanzmarktnormalisierung Wirtschaftswachstum auslösten und die Beschäftigung ankurbelten. Doch weiter gingen die Auswirkungen nicht.

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