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prasad13_AdamGaultgettyimages_mapdescendinggraph Adam Gault/Getty Images

能否阻止同步停滞?

伊萨卡—全球经济减速正在转变为同步停滞,一些主要经济体增长萎靡,另一些完全没有增长——甚至略有收缩。至少从现在看,担心全球衰退立即发生仍然有失鲁莽。但决策者对基本改革丝毫不感兴趣,采取有效宏观经济刺激的空间十分有限,因此,重振增长办法阙如。

减速的根源不难判断。持续的贸易紧张、政治动荡、地缘政治风险以及对货币刺激效果有限的担忧一直在侵蚀商业和消费者情绪,进而拖累投资和生产率增长。国际贸易流也收到了直接影响。世界贸易组织最近将其2019年全球贸易增长预测从2.6%大幅调降为 1.2%。此外,波罗的海干散指数——广受关注的基于大宗干散商品运费的贸易指标——在今年前八个月几近翻番,但此后下跌 了约30%,抹杀了贸易反弹的希望。

与此同时,全球不确定性让美元相对其他大部分主要货币保持强势。尽管美元升值给依靠出口或外国资本的非美国经济体减轻了一些压力,但也增加了公开货币战争的风险。

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