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减速的根源不难判断。持续的贸易紧张、政治动荡、地缘政治风险以及对货币刺激效果有限的担忧一直在侵蚀商业和消费者情绪,进而拖累投资和生产率增长。国际贸易流也收到了直接影响。世界贸易组织最近将其2019年全球贸易增长预测从2.6%大幅调降为 1.2%。此外,波罗的海干散指数——广受关注的基于大宗干散商品运费的贸易指标——在今年前八个月几近翻番,但此后下跌 了约30%,抹杀了贸易反弹的希望。


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