De l’insolvabilité du carbone aux dividendes du climat

BERLIN – Selon le G-8 et les plus éminents climatologues, il est impératif de limiter le réchauffement climatique à des températures qui ne dépassent pas de 2°C les niveaux pré-industriels. Si ces promesses ne demeurent pas lettres mortes, les conséquences seront radicales.

Cela implique pour commencer que, jusqu’en 2050, l’ensemble des émissions de carbone dans l’atmosphère ne doit pas dépasser 700 gigatonnes. Au rythme actuel des émissions de carbone, ce « budget » sera dépensé en une vingtaine d’années ; si les émissions augmentent ainsi qu’il est prévu, le monde deviendra « insolvable » en termes de carbone. Donc les efforts pour limiter les émissions de CO2  et d’autres gaz à effet de serre doivent être mis en oeuvre le plus rapidement possible. Perdre du temps entraînerait des coûts astronomiques et ne permettrait pas d’atteindre l’objectif des 2°.

Le nord, plus fortuné, ne peut pas continuer comme par le passé. Les pays industriels émergents ne doivent pas poursuivre la voie empruntée par les anciennes nations industrielles  vers la prospérité et le reste du monde ne la suivra probablement. Pourtant, les négociations préparatoires sur les limites d’émissions avec les 192 pays signataires en vue du Sommet de Copenhague en décembre 2009 n’ont pour l’instant montré aucun signe d’une volonté de changement radical.

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