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La eurozona todavía es vulnerable

BRUSELAS – A pesar de experimentar recientemente una recuperación económica general, la eurozona se mantiene frágil e insegura frente al riesgo de otra crisis. Y una razón importante es que sigue siendo vulnerable a los ciclos asimétricos de auge y crisis.

Dicho simplemente, si bien todos los miembros de la eurozona se pueden beneficiar en los buenos tiempos, algunos sufren mucho más que otros durante las crisis. Esto significa que no importa dónde azote la crisis, los inversores conscientes de la seguridad se retirarán de los países fiscalmente débiles y se dirigirán a otros países fiscalmente fuertes que tengan una trayectoria comprobada en materia de generación de crecimiento económico.

Cuando el cálculo económico se revierte, es de esperar que experimentemos una sensación de déjà vu. El beneficio de un país conllevará la pérdida de otro, lo que minará la cooperación al interior de la eurozona y alimentará tensiones políticas. Los efectos probablemente resuenen en la política doméstica de cada país, consolidando las fuerzas que favorecen la desintegración.

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