Euro Finance ministers meeting Anadolu Agency

Señales mixtas desde la eurozona

BRUSELAS – ¿Qué tiene reservado el futuro para la eurozona? Depende de hacia dónde se dirija la mirada. Algunos indicadores económicos sugieren que mejoran las posibilidades de supervivencia de la moneda común; por ejemplo, el empleo ha retornado a su pico anterior a la crisis y el crecimiento del PIB per cápita superó al de Estados Unidos el año pasado. Pero, al mismo tiempo, los riesgos políticos parecen estar aumentando, a pesar de las mejoras en la economía europea.

La evidencia de un riesgo creciente de desintegración de la eurozona proviene de tres indicadores diferentes. Pero un examen más detenido de esos indicadores sugiere que, si bien los riesgos a largo plazo siguen siendo sustanciales, los riesgos a corto plazo son bastante bajos.

Un indicador ampliamente utilizado se basa en las encuestas Sentix de los participantes en el mercado, mismas que muestran un fuerte aumento en la proporción de personas que creen que la eurozona se desintegrará pronto (en los próximos 12 meses). Y, esta vez no es Grecia el país que está impulsando ese resultado, sino Francia e Italia.

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