Pundits have been saying last rites for the dollar’s global dominance since the 1960s – that is, for more than half a century now. But the pundits may finally be right, because the greenback's dominance has been sustained by geopolitical alliances that are now fraying badly.
shows how President Donald Trump's contempt for US allies could weaken the greenback.
With a likely rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election, America and the rest of the world were heading into a perilous period even before the latest conflagration in the Middle East. Turmoil in the region will cloud the broader economic outlook – and could dim Biden’s chances.
worries global economic and political developments will put Donald Trump back in the White House.
Around the world, foreign-policy strategists are grappling with new international dynamics, from the Sino-American rivalry and ongoing hot wars to the broader breakdown in multilateral global governance. However, there is much debate about whether global power and alignments are truly shifting, and in what ways.
consider whether the world will become more multipolar or “non-aligned” in the new year.
It is hard to see anything good coming from the current spasm of violence between Israel and Hamas. But this tragedy, which has forced both Israelis and Palestinians to stare into the abyss, might prove to be a turning point that will clear the path for a lasting peace.
considers how the current conflagration might pave the way for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
东京—在反乌托邦科幻片《银翼杀手2049》(Blade Runner 2049)中,32年后的洛杉矶看上去就像是今天的中国大都市:灰蒙蒙污染严重,到处都是霓虹灯广告闪烁的高楼大厦。观众从来不甚了解外部世界,甚至不知道广告中的商品用哪种货币交易。美元仍然拥有主宰地位吗?中国人民币取而代之了吗?还是有其他货币崛起为全球主导?
美国总统特朗普似乎一定要让美国(至少部分地)从其全球领导角色上退出。但是,就像英镑在两次世界大战之间那样,一种货币可以在发行国失去了经济、金融和地缘政治霸权之后继续保有全球主导地位很久。今天也是如此,在相当长的一段时间内,世界都应该认为美元可以继续保有关键储备货币地位,被用于结算国际贸易。
但从国际金融外交的角度,美元的地位可能不那么牢靠了。问题在于,经济学家巴里·艾肯格林(Barry Eichengreen)预测的 “美元外交”的结束是否必然意味着人民币外交的崛起。
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