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英国脱欧和欧洲的未来

巴黎——没有人知道英国准备何时提交其脱欧谈判的议程。但毫无疑问英国脱欧必将重塑欧洲的版图。而且,尤其鉴于英国对其自身决策后果令人惊叹的毫无准备——英国的战略、优先事项甚至脱欧时间表都依然无法确定——这意味着欧盟必须开始思考如何争取最好的结果。下面谈谈应该怎么做。

让我们从唯一的确定性开始:英国脱欧谈判必将长期、复杂和激烈,而英欧离异必将产生意义深远的地缘政治后果。最直接的影响是逆转长达六十年的整合势头。欧洲在中短期同样将会蒙受损失,因为未来五年当欧盟需要集中精力应对内外威胁时,却不得不分出大量政治精力投入英国脱欧的谈判工作。从长远看,英国脱欧很可能会加速欧洲从全球顶级决策网络的退出。

英国同样无法逃脱这些后果。虽然英国可以退出欧盟,但却显然无法搬离欧洲。

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