US Federal Reserve Brooks Kraft

重写货币政策的范式

发自慕尼黑——各大国中央银行继续盲目依靠僵硬规则来控制通胀和刺激增长的做法还要持续多久?鉴于灵活货币政策的好处如此明显,中央银行家们需要开阔自己的视野,拥抱灵活所带来的可能性。

一直以来,货币政策制定者的黄金法则都是一旦发现通货膨胀低于官方目标范围,就立刻将短期利率设定为一定水平来促进支出和投资。但这种做法意味着一旦利率达到或接近零,央行立马无路可走,只能靠激活大规模资产购买计划以寄望能刺激需求。当形势需要时,决策者只得默认选择新凯恩斯主义经济模式的预定脚本。

但在许多情况下这些脚本会让我们走了弯路,因为它们认为货币政策会对需求和通货膨胀产生可衡量的和可预见的影响,而我们却有许多理由去怀疑这一假设。

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