Desetiletí industrializace v Africe

Feb 2, 2017 Li Yong

VÍDEŇ – V provázané globální ekonomice dneška zůstává Afrika slabým článkem. Pokud chce svět splnit Udržitelné rozvojové cíle a završit tím Agendu pro udržitelný rozvoj 2030 OSN, musí Africe pomoci zrychlit její rozvoj prostřednictvím rychlé a odpovědné industrializace.

Afrika není v žádném případě odsouzena k pokulhávání za zbytkem světových ekonomik. Naopak, mohla by se snadno stát globální ekonomickou velmocí a to během následujících deseti let. K naplnění tohoto potenciálu se však Afrika musí industrializovat.

Význam této skutečnosti byl v poslední době opakovaně zdůrazňován na mezinárodních fórech, včetně šesté Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD VI) v srpnu minulého roku, a summitu G20 v čínském Hangzhou v září minulého roku. G20 zahrnula industrializaci v Africe – a vlastně všech nejméně rozvinutých zemích (Least Developed Countries, LDCs) – do své agendy poprvé. Agenda 2063 Africké unie toto směřování také podporuje.

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Steve Hurst Feb 12, 2017

Why has capital headed for Asia rather than Africa - the answer looks to be stability.

To develop the infrastructure necessary to support industrialization will by some estimates demand investment in the region of 75% of GDP so that is not going to happen anytime soon.

The African time bomb is the ongoing population explosion and it is that which will drive migration North. To name just one country -Nigeria - the population is forecast to exceed the USA's withing 3 decades;but as usual no mention of this issue is ever made by folks talking about sustainability

Furthermore some assessments suggest that AI and robot implementation will reduce not increase China's intake of goods and services from developing economies of which Africa is a big player. Of note is the fact only 20% of China has industrialised.

As globalisation slows the question becomes how relevant industrialisation of Africa will be because the issue is who will consume the goods produced in a market which is likely to be saturated

'The economic growth experienced in recent decades has not been structurally driven, sustainable, or fully inclusive'. Indeed, but unfortunately there is no real reason to think the route proposed will solve that and the backdrop to Africa is Aid dependency which has the risk of only growing as a demand with population growth. As the Aid ceiling approaches held down by static population growth in the West it will need a miracle to avoid a humanitarian crisis. Similarly a static population growth in the West suggests a limit on the demand for consumer goods

Added to this is the water shortage due to develop with climate change which will hit Northern sections of Africa further exacerbating stability

So far from being well placed I would suggest Africa has many fundamental problems, central to which is the population explosion championed as an advantage by the author.

So all I can say is good luck because the willingness of the North to absorb economic migration from Africa looks to be at its limit, which will of course not stop the hungry and desperate.
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