I think that to leave the euro would be for Italy a sugar coated poison pill. Sugar coated because it could increase exports, helped by a weaker currency, the New Lira or whatever they decide to call it. But we should not forget that Italian exports are doing well also with the euro, and Italy is the second manufacturing and industrial products exporting country in Europe after Germany. Poison pill because Italy, the entire nation and not only the ruling class, will have some problems not falling in a semi-Latin American situation of debasing the national currency. We cannot forget that since 1971 - end of Bretton Woods exchange mechanism - and the middle 90s when the euro started to be a real project the Lira's devaluation vs. the DMark was almost 700 per cent. And that the rulers of the time wanted to get into the euro to stop that. Opting out could be like a public confession: we cannot make it. The Italian public has become critical of the Eu (44% remain, 32% undecided, 24% ready to leave) but 65% of Italians think that the euro is better than the Lira, more pro euro than the average Eu citizen at 61 per cent (Eurobatometer). To get out is not going to be easy.
The article says many nice things about President Obama and some of them sound true. In foreign policy however the failure is evident vis a vis a rampant Russia and with the tremedous loss of effectiveness and prestige suffered by the US in the Gulf, the Middle East and North Africa. And in Europe, too, despite the strictly personal popularity of Barack Obama and his family. It seems to me that the first weaknees of Obama's foreign policy was the worst one: the lack of ideas, and perhaps of interest for what is going on in distant areas.
But nothing is distant nowadays.
At home, it does not look to me that in the US there is great and widespread satisfaction, in spite of the official data about gdp, jobs and earnings. People's mood is very similar to what you can ear in several European countries.
So you ended up, we ended up, with Donald Trump. How can a successfull president leave the White House to somebody who got elected promising to change everything?
To the extent that the Obama administration lacked ideas, it created a significant opening for Europe and the EU to implement some ideas of their own didn't it?
But what has actually happened? Germany has always had the greatest stake in the tragedy in Ukraine. France has had a historic responsibility to Syria since 1919, and Italy for Libya. But where have they and their ideas been for the past eight years?
One positive that the Obama years may have created -- we'll have to see -- is the dawning in Europe that it itself needs to start carrying some of the burden of leadership in the West -- which is clearly a pretty thankless task for everyone. Instead however, it looks like everyone on the continent is retiring to his own corner in preparation for recreating the glories of the 20th century again -- resurrecting a bunch of old ideas, not any new ones.
Uhm. Ray Small invites Giovanna Vinci to be concerned about italian banks and leave Britain to the British. Uhm. Not very polite. Brexit is a euro-british issue, so Giovanna has a full right to speak her mind. Italian banks are a huge problem, but no bigger than RBS was in 2008-2009. Besides, here we are talking Brexit, I gather. Jose Araujo too takes some issue against Giovanna when he says that in recent history (last 100 years, I suppose) England has always been on the right side and the English and Welsh (I would not say the all of Britain who does not see, evidently, eye-to-eye) know what they are doing, choosing brexit. So, Giovanna, why are you concerned, better think about your Mediterranean peninsula. Perhaps. Clearly, Chris Patten does not share this optimistic view about a supposed British proved superior ...instinct, that's the unmistakable message he gives with this article, so Jose should criticize him too, not only Giovanna.
Just to stay with History, I remind that past achievements are not a guarantee against present and future blunders. Even if the opposite is true: past blunders make future ones more likely.