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Dan Gardner

Dan Gardner

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Dan Gardner is is the co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

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  1. Better Learning Through Better Betting
    tetlock2_Scott Olson_getty Scott Olson/Getty Images

    Better Learning Through Better Betting

    May 11, 2016 Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner suggest using complex wagers with small precise questions to settle public debates.

  1. benami202_Burak KaraGetty Images_erdogan Burak Kara/Getty Images
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    Turkey’s Pragmatic Islamist

    Shlomo Ben-Ami expects Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s latest electoral victory to have little impact on Turkish foreign policy.
  2. sierakowski98_Jaap ArriensNurPhoto via Getty Images_donaldtusk Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images
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    Poland's Electoral Inquisition

    Sławomir Sierakowski decries a new law designed to disqualify opposition candidates from running in this year's general election.
  3. stiglitz318_Drew AngererGetty Images_ira Drew Angerer/Getty Images
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    Western Industrial Policy and International Law

    Joseph E. Stiglitz

    With recent landmark legislation to support decarbonization and innovation, the United States is making up for lost time after its failed 40-year experiment with neoliberalism. But if it is serious about embracing a new paradigm, it will need to do more to help bring the rest of the world along.

     explains how to minimize the political risks of new spending packages in the US and Europe.
  4. mohan4_STEFANI REYNOLDSAFP via Getty Images_imf STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images
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    The IMF’s Turn to Lead on Climate

    Rakesh Mohan, et al. explain how the International Monetary Fund can best support green investment where it is needed the most.
  5. nye_Joe RaedleGetty Images_trump Joe Raedle/Getty Images
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    If Trump Returns

    Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

    What would a second Donald Trump presidency mean for US foreign policy and the world? While the man himself is unpredictable, his first term and his behavior since losing re-election in 2020 offer plenty of clues, none of which will be comforting to America's allies.

     considers the implications of the 2024 presidential election for America's foreign policy and global standing.
  6. alnuaimi1_GodongUniversal Images Group via Getty Images_UAEsolar Godong/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
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    A Western Distraction from Climate Action

    Ali Rashid Al Nuaimi warns that calls for the removal of Sultan Al Jaber as COP28 president-designate are a dangerous diversion.
  7. sheng137_Kaikeo SaiyasaneXinhua via Getty Images_china investment Kaikeo Saiyasane/Xinhua via Getty Images
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    How to Restructure Chinese Supply Chains

    Andrew Sheng & Xiao Geng argue that private markets can be leveraged to support a much-needed economic transformation.
  8. hausmann112_AIZAR RALDESAFP via Getty Images_solar panels AIZAR RALDES/AFP via Getty Images
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    The Supply Side of Decarbonization

    Ricardo Hausmann touts strategies that create incentives for developing countries to produce renewables and other green goods.
  9. roubini177_Getty Images_china us Getty Images
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    America and China Are on a Collision Course

    Nouriel Roubini juxtaposes recent developments and current trends with diplomatic happy talk about a “thaw” in tensions.

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