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Dan Gardner

Dan Gardner

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Dan Gardner is is the co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

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  1. Better Learning Through Better Betting
    tetlock2_Scott Olson_getty Scott Olson/Getty Images

    Better Learning Through Better Betting

    May 11, 2016 Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner suggest using complex wagers with small precise questions to settle public debates.

  1. zhang59_JADE GAOAFP via Getty Images_chinahousing Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images
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    China’s Savings Conundrum

    Zhang Jun explains why – and how – the country must stimulate household consumption to achieve a robust recovery.
  2. BP inflation hawks China News Service / Contributor via Getty Images
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    The Flight of the Inflation Hawks

    Though the US Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike of 2023 is smaller than those that preceded it, policymakers have signaled that more increases are on the way, despite slowing price growth. But there is good reason to doubt the utility – and fear the consequences – of continued rate hikes, on both sides of the Atlantic.

  3. boly1_Giovanni MereghettiUCGUniversal Images Group via Getty Images_agriculture rwanda Giovanni Mereghetti/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images
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    How to Transform African Agriculture

    Safia Boly & Omid Kassiri identify four principles that could help governments across the continent boost food security.
  4. borrell19_ FADEL SENNAAFP via Getty Images_ukrainewar Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images
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    Making Ukrainian Victory Possible

    Josep Borrell

    Exactly one year ago, it was still unclear whether Europeans would be able to come together to support Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. But, following the latest announcements of stepped-up military aid, there can no longer be any doubt about Europe's willingness to furnish what Ukraine needs to win.

     explains why continued military support and other forms of assistance remain critical.
  5. zizek13_OLGA MALTSEVAAFP via Getty Image_russian soldier OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP via Getty Images
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    Death or Glory in Russia

    Slavoj Žižek traces the religious and intellectual roots of the Kremlin’s increasingly morbid war propaganda.
  6. johnson159_Bill O'LearyThe Washington Post via Getty Images_congress ukraine Bill O'Leary/The Washington Post via Getty Images
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    Only the US Congress Can Stop Ukraine from Winning

    Simon Johnson explains why Russia’s best hope now lies with House Republicans’ nonsensical position on the US debt ceiling.
  7. emmott42_TORU YAMANAKAAFP via Getty Image_japannavy Toru Yamanaka/AFP via Getty Images
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    What Japanese Deterrence Would Look Like

    Bill Emmott explains what it will take to discourage aggression by North Korea, Russia, and especially China.
  8. duran8_ Getty ImagesGetty Images_argentina brazil union Getty Images/Getty Images
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    Getting to Monetary Integration in Latin America

    Camila Villard Duran explains why the vision of a regional unit of account, advanced by Brazil and Argentina, is achievable.
  9. subramanian35_erhui1979Getty Images_speechbubbles erhui1979/Getty Images
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    The Age of Verbiage

    Arvind Subramanian blames today’s nonstop inundation of expert opinion for undermining the quality of public discourse.

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