Tokyo stock exchange watching Trump's acceptance speech Yuya Shino/Stringer

保持特朗普反弹

伦敦—特朗普在美国总统大选中胜出震惊了全世界大部分人。但这位当选总统最后并没有否定人们的预期。与许多专家预测的相反,股市在他胜选后强烈反弹,美国三大股指创下历史新高,美元也大幅升值。解释这些意料之外的反应可以让我们对未来几个月的市场略作窥探。

在大选前,大部分分析师预测特朗普获胜将导致股市大甩卖和争相买入低风险政府债券。而事实上,当大选结果出台时,从特朗普在佛罗里达大获全胜、选举人票优势不断扩大时,发生的正是人们所预测的。当特朗普胜局已定时,美国股市道琼斯指数下跌800点,范围更广的标准普尔500指数“跌停”。此外,美元开始跳水,人们争相购入美国国债导致其收益率暴跌。

但市场的悲观没有维持多久。东部标准时间接近3点时,当选总统在纽约发表了胜选演讲,不久,股市开始反弹——并且一直反弹到现在,引领全球风险市场上涨。随着资本涌入美国,美元也升值至13年来所未见的水平。

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