Israeli flags fly near the Dome of the Rock in the Al-Aqsa mosque compound

Politics

特朗普，耶路撒冷归去来

Dec 21, 2017 Shlomo Ben-Ami

特拉维夫—美国国务卿有一句名言，他说，以色列这个国家的全部外交政策其实都是国内政策。但美国也是这样，特别是在以巴冲突的问题上。

历任试图解决这场冲突的美国总统都面临着巨大的——事实上是无法克服的——国内政治障碍。特朗普最近作出决定承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都，这将这一趋势带到了新的阶段，但结果仍然很有可能是耳熟能详的停滞。

特朗普的耶路撒冷决定是这位不受欢迎总统追求国内合法性的最新尝试，为了获得国内合法性，他竭尽全力要实现极端的、弄巧成拙的竞选承诺，包括退出或重新谈判跨太平洋合作伙伴关系和巴黎气候协议等国际条约。类似地，耶路撒冷决定是为了安抚他的大量福音派选民救世主之梦。

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j. von Hettlingen Dec 24, 2017

As a former Israeli foreign minister, Shlomo Ben-Ami maintains the US should not own the "monopoly on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process." In order to boost the "chances of success," the international community should let the peace-talks be conducted "like those that produced the 2015 Iran nuclear deal," involving the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the US), plus Germany - the P5+1. In concerted efforts they might have a chance, given their success in 2015.
The author says "Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition simply is no partner for a historic deal, on Jerusalem or on any other element of the dispute. The only way forward is for Israel to produce a new, more centrist coalition, while the Palestinians adopt a more sober and strategic approach." He also points out that Netanyahu's "expansionist government are numbered." Despite Trump's "clumsy Jerusalem declaration" Netanyahu's far-right government would not recover from "massive corruption scandals and irreconcilable internal conflicts."
Henry Kissinger once pointed out that Israel's "entire foreign policy is actually domestic" and the same applies the US. Israel is heavily dependent on Washington to survive in a hostile neighbourhood. American Jews and pro-Israel donors dictate the US foreign policy, especially when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, ensuring that Congress do their bidding. Without the votes of the pro-Israel evangelical Christians, Trump would not have won last year. His campaign was managed by his Jewish son-in-law, Jared Kushner, whose father is a good friend of Benjamin Netanyahul. Trump's campaign pledges were highly controversial and he needs to deliver in order to garner support from his base.
The author led the Israeli negotiating team in the 1990s, saying "both sides accepted the idea of Jerusalem being partitioned, albeit with flexible borders, along ethnic lines." In this respect, Although Trump’s Jerusalem declaration earned international condemnation, it would not change the reality on the ground and "preclude a solution according to the peace parameters put forward by Bill Clinton." Nevertheless Trump has lost America's credibility as a fair and impartial mediator. Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the Palestinian Authority announced that “from now on” he would not accept “any role” for the US in the peace process."
Now anti-American powers – Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, and Turkey – could seize the opportunity to "enhance their own regional influence, at the expense of the US and its allies. They hope to position themselves as the champions of a great Arab and Muslim cause supposedly betrayed by the feeble reaction of Israel’s newfound Arab friends, particularly Saudi Arabia." Indeed, the unholy alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia, forged by Jared Kushner may damage Riyadh's image of the custodian of the two Holy Mosques in Mecca and Medina, if it does not defend the Al Aqsa Mosque - the third holiest site in Islam in the Old City of Jerusalem.
Palestinians should not rely on Iran, Russia and Turkey to help them achieve statehood, because they all have their own national interests at heart. Putin is a "realist" and he will not "assume a leadership role" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that would "damage his relationships with both parties." Iran is a Shia-majority country, and has been accused by the Saudis of stoking sectarian violence in Sunni-majority countries. Besides the two are embroiled in a regional hegemonic struggle. Turkey is obsessed with its Kurdish agenda and Erdogan is also a realist. He hosted the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation summit in Istanbul last week, attended by the Saudi King Salman and Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani. Leaders at the summit unanimously declared East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital.
Given these circumstances outside players, like the P5+1 should be given the chance to mediate. Palestinians will accept this proposal, but perhaps not Israel, because it had accused the EU of anti-Semitism in the past. But Britain, France and Germany is only half of the P5+1. Surely Israel can not say that China, Russia and the US are anti-Israel. The author is right, only a "more centrist coalition" in Israel would give peace a chance.
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Paul Friesen Dec 22, 2017

There is something I don't understand, and I wish somebody would enlighten me. What, exactly, do Israelis who support settlement expansion see as the end state of this policy? Do they see what is happening now as just continuing indefinitely into the future, with the Palestinians crowded into ever smaller and more disconnected bits of land? Do they expect the Palestinians to disappear? To all give up and move to Jordan so they can just annex the whole West Bank? Or would they perhaps welcome an uprising, so that they have an excuse to expel or kill them? Would they perhaps like the Palestinians to all just renounce violence and accept Israeli rule and become Israeli citizens? How do they see their long-term interests as being served by settlement expansion?
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