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核高调的危险

马德里—2012年夏天,国际关系理论家肯尼斯·瓦尔茨(Kenneth N. Waltz)发表了一篇题为《为什么伊朗应该得到炸弹》(Why Iran Should Get the Bomb)的文章,在这篇文章中他指出,有核武器的伊朗能够成为制衡以色列的力量,从而重新建立有利的中东实力平衡。

当年晚些时候,瓦尔茨又指出,制裁与外交相结合的策略不可能说服伊朗放弃发展核能力。“如果不使用武力,”他在2012年9月号的《外交事务》(Foreign Affairs)杂志上写道,“很难想象如何防止伊朗在它下定决心的情况下获得核武器。”

瓦尔茨犯了两个错误。首先,他为核武器辩护,认为它是地区或全球稳定之源,这大大低估了核武器落入恐怖分子之手或因为误算而使用的危险。

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