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Politics

O populismo depois de Trump

Nov 16, 2020 Philippe Legrain

LONDRES – Antes de ser presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump construiu uma personalidade televisiva em cima do bordão “Você está demitido”. Agora, o público americano o demitiu. E a derrota de Trump foi também um golpe devastador nos populistas nacionalistas europeus e de outros lugares. Será um golpe mortal?

Os pântanos que criam nacionalismo populista não foram drenados. Muitas pessoas continuam frustradas com o que consideram (ou preveem que será) uma perda de status econômico e social, e se sentem abandonadas ou difamadas por políticos tradicionais. Estagnação salarial, desindustrialização e injustiça econômica continuam a ser enormes desafios. Muitos estão convencidos de que a imigração e a mudança cultural representam uma ameaça à sua segurança e estilo de vida. A crise da covid-19 está combinando essas ansiedades.

A persistência destes temores e frustrações se refletiu nos resultados da eleição americana. Embora o presidente eleito Joe Biden tenha recebido cinco milhões a mais de votos do que Trump – vantagem de 3,4 pontos percentuais –, mais de 72 milhões de americanos ainda declararam seus votos no presidente que está de saída.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Rajiv Chopra Nov 24, 2020

I don't think populists are going anywhere yet
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Jonathan Lemieux Nov 23, 2020

it also helped that none of the major news networks would cover his diminishing mental capacity, or ask him hard questions. Ignore his family controversies, while magnifying Trump's, etc
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Daniel Esmond Nov 18, 2020

National populists have changed much of the functioning of the public sphere, eliminating rational, evident based debates (a lot has been said about the discrediting of experts etc.) and appealing primarily through unfiltered emotions (again, plenty said about this, too). But they have also managed to eliminate most moral arguments from public debates and revel in amorality, selfishness and strange social Darwinism that characterises much of their politics. There is a school of thought that this was a backlash against the moralising of the left. Nevertheless, the unmooring of public discourse and most of policy from any moral or ethical framework gave them unexpected advantages. This resonated with many ordinary people who probably felt liberated from the shackles of contemporary morality. While one shouldn’t idealise the past, there were moral frameworks within which both the left and the right operated, to smaller or larger extent linked to utopian destinations of travel (from solidarity, equality or internationalism to the Christian Democracy that underpinned most of the right). The weakening of moral frameworks happened before the onslaught of nationalist populists, but they have reshaped the debate entirely. It might be interesting to see how (at least) some moral arguments can be restored to public debates and how that might continue the erosion of populism.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 17, 2020

Philippe Legrain says Trump’s failure to win his reelection bid deals a devastating blow to nationalist populists in Europe and elsewhere. While he has won some 72 million votes, Joe Biden received five million more. Despite Trump’s defeat, his brand of populism is not dead, but it also shows that far-right populism is not “inexorable.” The momentous election result is further evidence that the much-talked-about “populist wave” of recent years may well be subsiding.
According to the author, “beyond shattering this self-serving narrative of inevitability, Trump’s loss discredits his deeply flawed policies, thereby reducing their attractiveness to others. Over the past four years, Trump has pursued “an approach that unabashedly purports to put ‘America first,’ trampling on trade treaties and misusing sanctions to try to give US businesses and workers an edge.” This has ended US global leadership, isolating the country from the rest of the international community.
As Trump’s era draws to a close, many world leaders are breathing a sigh of relief. But his ideological kindred spirits - rightwing populists in office elsewhere – are instead drawing a sharp intake of breath. The end of Trump’s presidency may not mean the beginning of their demise, but it certainly strips them of a powerful motivational factor, and also alters the global political trend, which in recent years had seemed to be slowly tilting in their favour, at least until the onset of a deadly virus.
Trump, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Narendra Modi and other populist leaders have collided with the cold realitites of Covid-19, and fared poorly in their battle against the pandemic. They have been promoting nationalist, protectionist, and hate-based agendas to dupe the public, all while denying the pressing emergencies of our times. They have all promised to restore national greatness in their respective countries, and claimed to embody the will of the people against the corrupt elites.
Being suspicious of expert opinion, they tend to ignore the advice of scientists, preferring “alternative facts” tailored to their own liking. This is evident in their indifference toward climate change and refugee crises and in their responses to the ongoing pandemic. This global health crisis requires global collaboration, responsibility and solidarity, which goes against everything they stand for, and it is moving too fast for their populist rhetorical strategies to work.
Populist - often racist - leaders specialise in manipulating public opinion and dividing the population. Hence it is hard for them to unite against a common threat. Besides they rely heavily on economic growth for their legitimacy. Reluctant to suffer short-term economic costs in the interest of public health, they oppose a lockdown, saying the cure cannot be worse than the problem itself. Pushing for a reopening the economy triggers a surge in infections, which in turn stalls the its recovery.
The author says the “swamps that breed populist nationalism have not been drained. Too many people remain frustrated over their perceived (or anticipated) loss of economic and social status, and feel disregarded or maligned by establishment politicians. Wage stagnation, deindustrialization, and economic injustice continue to be serious challenges. Many are convinced that immigration and cultural change pose a threat to their safety and way of life. The COVID-19 crisis has compounded these anxieties.”
It is going to be tough for populist leaders, who “will not only enjoy less domestic legitimacy; governments will face a higher international price for nationalist stances. Trump was a powerful ally for Europe’s illiberal regimes, especially in Hungary and Poland,” who stood by them in their fights with Angela Merkel by challenging EU policies on asylum, judicial independence.” Warsaw also hoped that Trump would help Poland set up a permanent US military base against Russian threat.
The author says, “with Biden in the White House, the Polish government will feel more pressure to be constructive. The same goes for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Trump championed Brexit as an expression of sovereignty and encouraged Johnson to take a tough line with the European Union, dangling the prospect of a bilateral trade deal as a prize. Biden is no fan of Brexit,” and he hears echoes of Trump in Johnson’s “racist slight” about Obama’s “part-Kenyan” ancestry.
Members of Johnson's government and Conservative lawmakers had openly endorsed the re-election of Donald Trump. It remains to be seen whether it could complicate the UK-US relationship. What would give Johnson sleepless nights is Biden’s “irish ancestry.” The president-elect has emphasised “that he will not accept any threat to peace in Northern Ireland. With time running out to negotiate a post-Brexit trade agreement, Johnson is now under far greater pressure to compromise.”
Biden has showed that “populism can be defeated - and not just with more populism. Far from employing populists’ tactics, endorsing their worldviews, or pandering to their prejudices, Biden built a broad electoral coalition around a promise of positive change, sober moderation, and competent governance. This holds a crucial lesson for center-left and center-right political parties in Europe, which have at times succumbed to the populist temptation – such as by echoing their socially conservative, anti-immigrant views – to try to win votes.”
Covid-19 has become another proof of the utter failure of populism to provide anything other than empty and hateful rhetoric. Far-right nationalist leaders cannot provide any kind of social or economic solutions to domestic and global problems, and the pandemic is making this ever more apparent. Perhaps this tragedy will be that last straw that broke the camel’s back which will bring the demise of populism across the world.
- Rajiv Chopra Nov 24, 2020
  
  I agree with much of what you say, I cannot comment on the other countries, but I can speak of my own. Narender Modi's performance has been woeful. However, he has managed to create a myth around the resurgence of "Hindu Pride", whatever that it. I find that many people, educated and otherwise buy into it. At some point, like Hitler, he will fall. He has also been blessed in having a scattered, disorganized and incompetent Opposition. He has also been smart enough to demonize them. So, I guess that we will have to see how this goes, country by country.
  
  I don't know if you would call Xi JinPing a populist, but he is a dictatorial, authoritarian nationalist. He is the most dangerous of the lot. Does Biden have what it takes to "stand up" to him? I don't know.
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Bernhard Kopp Nov 16, 2020

Non-populist politicians, representing parties around the political center are not forbidden to earn the trust of those who fall prey to the populists. The problem is that they are not too eager to give up the focus on identity politics (gender, race and sexual identity, and 90-plus % of everything that comes with it ), It just ticks people off, as we can see with the social democrats in most European countries, and the 8 Millon more votes for Trump after 4 years of Trump. On the US-scene, you see an attractive young women on the cover of Vanity Fair and it blows your mind to see that it is AOC, who claims to represent " little people ", not just in her voting district, where they may forgive her - in Michigan, Ohio or Wisconsin, they will not. Bismarck coined the phrase : the value of a man is determined by the sum of his talents - minus his vanity. This applies to women in politics too.
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