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Waarom Trump?

NEW YORK – Er zijn mij tijdens mijn wereldreis de afgelopen twee weken herhaaldelijk dezelfde twee vragen gesteld. Ten eerste: is het voorstelbaar dat Trump de Amerikaanse presidentsverkiezingen wint? En ten tweede: hoe heeft zijn kandidatuur het überhaupt zover kunnen schoppen?

Wat de eerste vraag betreft liggen de kansen, alhoewel politieke voorspellingen zelfs nog moeilijker zijn dan economische, sterk in het voordeel van Hillary Clinton. Toch is het een mysterie dat de race (althans tot zeer recent) zo spannend is geweest: Clinton is één van de best gekwalificeerde en goed voorbereide presidentskandidaten die de VS ooit heeft gehad, terwijl Trump één van de minst gekwalificeerde en slechtst voorbereide is. Bovendien heeft de Trump’s campagne gedrag van hem overleefd dat de kansen van kandidaten in het verleden totaal verspeeld zou hebben.

Dus waarom spelen de Amerikanen Russische roulette? (Want dat is wat een kans van zelfs maar één op zes op een overwinning voor Trump feitelijk zou inhouden.) Mensen buiten de VS willen antwoord op deze vraag, omdat het antwoord ook invloed op hun heeft, ondanks dat ze er zelf geen invloed op kunnen uitoefenen.

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