当美元遭遇浮油

坎布里奇——石油价格的快速上涨和美元汇率的急速下跌是过去一年中最引人注目的两大事件。在过去12个月内,石油价格上涨幅度达到85%,从每桶65美元涨到了每桶120美元。就在同期,美元相对欧元的汇率却下降了15%,相对日元的汇率则下降了12%。在很多观察员看来,美元贬值和石油价格上涨的组合似乎不能简简单单用“巧合”二字来加以形容。

但这两者之间究竟有什么联系?如果石油以欧元而不是美元计价,那么石油价格的涨幅是否能够降低?美元的下跌是否导致了石油价格的上涨?而石油价格的上涨又如何影响着美元的走势?

由于石油市场是全球性的,不同地方的油价几乎没有差别,因此石油价格反映着全球石油需求和产油国石油供给之间的关系。石油最主要的用途是运输燃料,此外还有一小部分被用于采暖、能源以及塑料等石化工业的原材料。全球所有国家日益旺盛的石油需求,特别是中国和印度等快速增长的新兴市场国家的石油需求,因此就一直成为,而且也将继续成为全球油价重要的助推力量。 

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