迈向欧洲转移支付联盟之路

Jan 29, 2018 Hans-Werner Sinn

发自慕尼黑——在大衰退将经济打入自大萧条以来前所未有的低谷整整十年后，是时候从日常的政治中跳脱出来才能瞥见更大的图景。欧洲人需要问问自己从哪里走来，未来又该去向何处。

二十年前的1998年，欧盟许多国家为了引入欧元而将自身汇率永久固定了下来。一时间几近破产的南欧国家不再需要支付比德国高出约5~20个百分点的巨额利息溢价。自此之后廉价贷款泛滥的南欧经历了债务融资推动下的经济繁荣，推高了工资和价格。最终这一繁荣演化成了一场泡沫。

然后在十年前，同时在美国次级抵押贷款市场不断膨胀的泡沫破灭，导致全球金融危机以及随之而来的南欧泡沫破裂。在火烧眉毛之时，危机肆虐下的南欧国家利用欧洲支付体系进行大规模透支，以取代被切断了的私人贷款来源。

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Hans-Werner Sinn

Writing for PS since 2002
105 Commentaries

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Munich, is a former president of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs (Oxford University Press, 2014).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

Henk Crop Feb 1, 2018

Now that the EU economy is doing well it is time to think about the future.
I would expect that someone is going to ask mr. Draghy how this Euro 2300 billion is going to be repaid.
What is to be done with the Euro ? It is obviously poorly designed, but can it be be repaired by bandages.
Apart from the monitairy inbalance France want some more transfers. Sharing of debts, money for the peripherie, guaranties of private bankloans.
The ECB is controlled by countries in need of money, not by the ones paying.
In Germany the EU has their own disciple, mr. Schultz, in a position of power with the SPD.
France is taking the lead in the EU. But France is also the country that forced the Euro upon us, that has caused so much trouble.
Since their are no unbiased Europeans living in Europe. My suggestion is would it not be good to bring in some non-European experts to advise us how to get out of this mess.
- Steve Hurst Feb 1, 2018
  
  Henk - It appears France wanted the euro because it engaged Germany and indirectly the German assets, and the current Macron initiative looks very similar. This has pretty much been the French psyche since WW2 - It was the whole basis of the ECSC which was the precursor to the EEC and the now current EU. Germany agreed to the euro because it wanted German Reunification and lower ECB rates to help with the cost otherwise it was unmanageable. ECB rates dropped, a bubble formed directly because of that and the EZ remains dysfunctional. If you want to have some insight into the French apprehension with and the relationship with Germany then reading about the French thinking behind the pre WW2 Maginot Line is interesting. Another very logical but totally flawed implementation. If you want an outside expert then I would suggest Goldman Sachs who addressed Greek books to allow their entry into the euro by moving liabilities off central account with magic dust
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Carl Grandell Jan 30, 2018

I'd say someone forgot to price the credit correctly at this stage.
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Asgood Asitgets Jan 30, 2018

Please explain to us Mr Sinn, what would've happened if instead we had let the southern countries default and the northern European banks that had lent them bear the cost of that default? Would that have been more fair to the eurozone taxpayers? Would there still be a eurozone or an EU for that matter?
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bruzzeson bruzzeson Jan 29, 2018

Overt measures such as transfers to the south will last one election cycle max, and then be voted down. The build up of worthless target 2 claims will then continue again. It will only be stopped when Germany draws a red line in the sand. Might as well do it at 1,000 billion I think.
- Steve Hurst Jan 30, 2018
  
  'And she said, 'we are all just prisoners here, of our own device'
  And in the master's chambers,
  They gathered for the feast
  They stab it with their steely knives,
  But they just can't kill the beast'
  Hotel California
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Steve Hurst Jan 29, 2018

As usual Germany is crying wolf. There may be a wolf about sometime but not anytime soon.

Herr Sinn has described on this site in a previous article that Germany has the benefit of a whooping 20+% (possibly more depending how you calculate it) discount on exports via using the euro and the euro FX being held down by the Med Club.

Very neatly Germany gets the euro currency discount, gets the big players in the EU to provide handouts to newcomers such as the V4, who then use that cash to buy from Germany assisting the German balance sheet. The export relationship between Germany and the V4 (and others) would be worth an assessment but seldom is raised

I dont blame Germany for any of this - far from that - but it is there and crying wolf wears a bit thin.

Herr Sinn is spot on with the ageing democracy but it hardly anybody elses problem if German women want to avoid having children. In due course Germans - following the Japanese extinction thesis (the date has been calculated as 3776) - will also become extinct unless something changes as the German fertility rate is not much higher than the Japanese one.

The Target ledger IOUs far from being imaginary as Herr Sinn purports are the shackles that hold the Med Club close to Germany via the euro - maintaining the status quo which for now appears to benefit Germany - so I would be very surprised if anything changed anytime soon. Germany is free to leave the EZ but probably does not want to. The Med Club are not free to leave anytime soon and in reality are debt serfs and facing depopulation via outward migration, that could potentially solve Germany's demographic but if so it will continue to expand the Med Club problems. Germany would become less German by this mechanism as some 8 million young skilled, qualified, educated and German speaking workers suitable for an industrial society are probably needed shortly.
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stephan Edwards Jan 29, 2018

You really honestly believe that fiscal transfers can be pushed through? I personally predict that if Fiscal transfers from north to south are pushed through that anti EU parties grow exponentially has northern Tax payers pay for southern debts. Will see whose right?
- alinewton Jan 29, 2018
  
  Germany has been caught in the fly-paper constructed by the High Priests of the Euro Project in Brussels and sold to them by their own Chancellor, Helmutt Kohl.
  
  Though no fan of the Euro, Prof. Sinn seems to think that, in view of the 907€ billion of IOUs it is holding onto in the T2 Balance system,Germany has no choice but to stay the course and accept the inevitability of fiscal transfers. But realistically there is near to zero chance of redeeming these IOUs within the current fixed exchange rate mechanism, and they should therefore be written off as a sunk cost.
  
  In which case their logical choice of action would be to step aside from the Euro and allow it to depreciate to a more sensible exchange rate against the NeuDmark, thereby allowing Italy and others to trade on a more equal footing and perhaps in time redeem some of their Euro denominated IOUs.
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