当后见之明不是20/20

Sep 24, 2018 Lawrence H. Summers

坎布里奇—乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）是一个伟大的人。他的记录充满了金融的睿智。在二十世纪下半叶，也没有慈善家或慈善机构能够比他为建设更美好的世界贡献更多。

不幸的是，他对2008年的事件以及当时我们的几次对话的回忆出了错。此外，他对2009年美国政府的政策可行选择的分析也远远不如平时精辟。诚然，2008年金融危机及其短期后果本可以处理得更好；战场治疗永远不会完美。但对于约翰逊（Johnson）和索罗斯对于我所在的政府的愚蠢无能的指控，哪怕连表面证据也找不到。

读了他们的观点的读者可能会考虑以下几点。

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A Better Bailout Was Possible
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A Better Bailout Was Possible

Rob Johnson & George Soros trace the rise of Donald Trump to the Obama administration's post-2008 refusal to write down mortgage debts.

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ian gribbin Sep 26, 2018

The elephant in the room is the pitiful inability of politicians and economists to explain the need for an extraordinary fiscal stimulus to the public.

Economics itself has much to answer for - with exception to a notable minority - they clung to Friedman's failed monetarism as a way out. Perhaps it was all too embarrassing for most of them to accept their methodology had completely collapsed the moment the credit crisis began.

And here we are a decade on - and it takes someone like Bannon to chart the right fiscal course?!

The entire economics profession ought to be ashamed of themselves as well as central bankers and politicians.

One could forgive if we didn't have a template of how not to do things from the Great Depression! It took us 10 years to get some kind of New Deal, thanks to Trump! I'd be hanging my head in shame if I had anything to do with the Obama administration or policy making of the last decade. In fact I'd probably have the decent to resign from any major position I was occupying, but fat chance of that in this era of moral indecency.
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ferdinand van Dieten Sep 25, 2018

Fact: In the Netherlands banks were saved buy buying their shares, in stead of assets. Afterwards most of these shares were sold with profit, some failed. Pro saldo the rescue paid more or less for itself. The ideological fear for "nationalisation" costed the US citizens trillions and left this amount as a windfall to the rich. Indeed the marginal effects on growth are difficult to calculate, but the loss by this ideological blindness (or protection of the rich?) is clear and distinct to speak with Descartes.
The USA should make the laws to prepare for such a share buying program next time.
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M M Sep 24, 2018

Lawrence, if you read my comment on the article of GS you will see that I said the same, the Obama administration had no plan and chose continuity over change. This was fatal!
- ian gribbin Sep 26, 2018
  
  Spot on. A number of politicians and executives should have been hung out to dry...nobody even mentions AIG any more - but that rodent Cassano should have gone straight to prison as well as the board. They were the wrong side of every CDS on the market and had been scraping off yield for a decade or more. Remember he was also one of those culpable in the junk bond crash too.
  
  But worse than that AIG and Cassano personally, gave enormous donations to Chris Dodd and the Democrats! Dodd - thick as two short planks if you ask me as well as others - was also Chair of the Senate Banking committee for donkeys years.....what has been done to ensure this type of Minsky link to politics has been regulated out of existence?
  
  All I see and feel is ridiculous Dodd Frank virtue signalling with over regulation of banks themselves, rather than the correct course of action which is stopping the money flows from banks/corporates into politics.
  
  Basically every course of action taken then and since has been wrong. And what the hell was Obama doing focusing on health care from the moment he got in rather than root and branch reform of the financial system and US capitalism itself? Waste of an administration, waste of an opportunity and you are culpable in some respects Larry......
  - M M Sep 26, 2018
    
    Ian, you are correct in both of your arguments above. The banksters, lawyers, government advisers and officials, got away with murder, literally! HRC, Summers and all of the Clintons team were all over Barack Obama when he took office (the 1st term), effectively they were in control. The most disappointing part is that during the handover to Trump, Barack Obama was still insisting on continuity and was advising Trump not to change course. Chocking to say the least, the man was and is oblivious to the facts and as to what had gone wrong.
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当后见之明不是20/20

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