Liu Lei/Getty Images

В Европе – либо реформы, либо развод

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Утверждать, будто после кризиса 2008 года у экономики стран еврозоны не очень хорошие показатели, некорректно. В странах еврозоны дела идут хуже, чем в странах ЕС, не входящих в еврозону, и намного хуже, чем в США, которые находились в эпицентре кризиса.

Страны еврозоны с наихудшими экономическими показателями погрузились в депрессию или глубокую рецессию; их ситуация – вспомните о Греции – во многих отношениях хуже, чем положение в различных странах мира в период Великой депрессии 1930-х годов. Страны еврозоны с наилучшими экономическими показателями, например, Германия, выглядят хорошо, но лишь в сравнении. Кроме того, их модель роста частично базируется на политике по принципу «разори соседа», когда успех достигается за счёт былых «партнёров».

Существует четыре типа объяснений, которыми обычно описывают сложившееся положение. Германии нравится винить во всём жертву: здесь указывают на расточительство Греции и на размеры долгов и бюджетного дефицита в остальных странах. Но в этом случае телега встаёт впереди лошади: до кризиса у Испании и Ирландии был профицит бюджета и низкое соотношение долга к ВВП. Именно кризис вызвал рост дефицита и госдолга, а не наоборот.

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