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Reforma ou Divórcio na Europa

NOVA IORQUE – Dizer que a zona euro não tem um bom desempenho desde a crise de 2008 é um eufemismo. Os seus países-membros tiveram um desempenho pior do que os países da União Europeia que estão fora da zona euro, e muito pior do que os Estados Unidos, que foram o epicentro da crise.

Os países da zona euro com pior desempenho estão atolados em depressão ou recessão profunda; a sua condição (pensemos na Grécia) é em muitos aspectos pior do que a das economias durante a Grande Depressão da década de 1930. Os membros da zona euro com melhores desempenhos, como a Alemanha, parecem estar bem, mas apenas em termos comparativos; e o seu modelo de crescimento é parcialmente baseado em políticas conduzidas à custa do enfraquecimento de outros países (NdT: beggar-thy-neighbour, no original), em que o sucesso depende dos antigos “parceiros”.

Foram apresentados quatro tipos de explicações para explicar este estado de coisas. A Alemanha gosta de culpar as vítimas, apontando a prodigalidade da Grécia, e a dívida e os défices noutros países. Mas isto põe a carroça à frente dos bois: antes da crise do euro, a Espanha e a Irlanda tinham superávites, e reduzidos rácios de dívida relativamente ao PIB. Por isso, foi a crise que causou os défices e as dívidas, e não o contrário.

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