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In Europa o Riforme o Divorzio

NEW YORK – Dire che a partire dalla crisi del 2008 la zona euro non è andata bene è un eufemismo. I paesi membri hanno registrato andamenti peggiori rispetto a quelli dei paesi dell’Unione esterni all’Eurozona, e molto peggiori rispetto agli Stati Uniti, epicentro della crisi.

I paesi della zona euro meno efficienti rimangono invischiati in una fase depressiva o di profonda recessione; per molti versi la loro condizione – si pensi alla Grecia – è peggiore di quella sofferta dalle economie durante la Grande Depressione degli anni trenta. I membri della zona euro che hanno fatto registrare le prestazioni migliori, come la Germania, sembrano essere in buone condizioni, ma solo rispetto ad una comparazione interna; inoltre il loro modello di crescita si basa in parte su politiche “beggar-thy-neighbor” (a scapito dei vicini), per cui il successo arriva a spese degli “ex partner”.

Per spiegare questo stato di cose sono stati avanzati quattro tipi di spiegazioni. Alla Germania piace “colpevolizzare la vittima”, puntando il dito contro la dissolutezza della Grecia e contro il debito ed il deficit di altri paesi. Ma questo approccio “mette il carro davanti ai buoi”: prima della crisi dell’euro Spagna ed Irlanda avevano eccedenze ed un basso rapporto debito-PIL. Dunque la crisi ha causato deficit e debito, e non il contrario.

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