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Interpretare la Ripresa Globale in presenza di Recessione Politica

MILANO – D’estate, mentre la vita rallenta, c’èspazio per riflettere su questioni fondamentali. Uno dei principali rompicapo che ultimamente occupano la mia mente è costituito dalla discrepanza tra la generalizzata disfunzione politica e la performance relativamente forte del mercato economico e finanziario.

Oggi, le principali economie del mondo stanno sperimentando una ripresa costante, nonostante rallentamenti occasionali. Di certo, le performance economiche sono ben lungi dal raggiungere appieno le relative potenzialità: a seconda di dove si guarda, si possono trovare divari tra prodotto effettivo e potenziale, eccesso di leva finanziaria, bilanci fragili, investimenti insufficienti e passività non finanziarie a lungo termine prive di copertura. Tuttavia, i mercati finanziari non mostrano segni di agitazione, anche se gli stimoli monetari vengono gradualmente ritirati.

Tuttavia, allo stesso tempo, le condizioni politiche sembrano deteriorarsi. La polarizzazione si è intensificata, in parte a causa di una crescente resistenza alla globalizzazione ed ai modelli sbilanciati di crescita che ne derivano. Negli Stati Uniti, ad esempio, il Pew Research Center riferisce che le persone non solo sono fortemente in disaccordo con i loro connazionali dell’altro schieramento; ma emergono tra loro anche avversione e disprezzo.

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