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Fifteen years after the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered a devastating global financial crisis, the banking system is in trouble again. Central bankers and financial regulators each seem to bear some of the blame for the recent tumult, but there is significant disagreement over how much – and what, if anything, can be done to avoid a deeper crisis.
坎布里奇—个关于棘手的权衡的老笑话说，想象你最大的敌人开着你的新车在悬崖上开车。你会为你的敌人的灭亡感到高兴，还是为你的汽车被毁而悲伤？
对许多人来说，今年希望看到，同时也是急需的 全球经济复苏便造成了类似的两难。如果国家政策和国际协作方面不出现重大改观，预期的2021年增长强劲回升将非常不平均，不管在国家间还是各国内部都是如此。随之而来的一系列风险可能令未来几年的增长达不到应有水平。
根据目前的信息，我预计中国和美国的快速增长将推动今年全球经济增长6%或更多（2020年收缩了3.5%）。但是，尽管欧洲应该能双底衰退，但其复苏可能会比较平庸。而新兴世界的部分地区处境更加艰难。
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