Keine Entwicklung, kein Frieden

Wer sich für Friedensschaffung, Armutsbekämpfung und Afrikas Zukunft interessiert, sollte den neuen UNEP-Bericht (Umweltprogramm der Vereinten Nationen) Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment (Sudan: Umweltbewertung nach dem Konflikt) lesen. Er klingt vielleicht wie ein technischer Bericht über die Umwelt im Sudan, ist aber viel mehr. Es handelt sich um eine anschauliche Studie darüber, wie natürliche Umgebung, Armut und Bevölkerungswachstum miteinander interagieren und so furchtbare, von Menschen verursachte Katastrophen hervorrufen wie die Gewalt in Darfur.

Wenn – wie in Darfur – ein Krieg ausbricht, suchen die meisten Politiker nach einer politischen Erklärung und einer politischen Lösung. Dies ist verständlich, lässt jedoch einen wesentlichen Punkt außer Acht. Wenn wir die Rolle von Geografie, Klima und Bevölkerungswachstum in einem Konflikt verstehen, können wir realistischere Lösungen finden, als wenn wir uns allein an die Politik halten.

Extreme Armut ist eine Hauptursache und ein Prädiktor für Gewalt. In den ärmsten Gegenden der Welt, wie Darfur, ist ein Krieg viel wahrscheinlicher als in reicheren Ländern. Diese Erkenntnis beruht nicht nur auf dem gesunden Menschenverstand, sondern wurde anhand von Studien und statistischen Analysen nachgewiesen. In den Worten der UNEP: „In Darfur besteht eine sehr starke Verbindung zwischen Landverödung, Wüstenbildung und dem Konflikt.“

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