没有发展,就没有和平

关注维持和平、消除贫困和非洲未来的所有人都应该读读联合国环境规划署新发表的苏丹报告: 冲突结束后的环境评估 。这听起来像是有关苏丹环境的一份技术性报告,但其实际意义却远不止于此。它是对自然环境、贫穷以及人口增长如何相互作用,激起达尔富尔暴乱那样可怕的人为灾祸的一次生动的研究。

正如在达尔富尔一样,战争爆发时多数决策者都在寻求政治原因和解决办法。这可以理解,但却忽略了最根本的原因。通过了解地理、气候和人口增长在冲突中所起的作用,我们就可以找到比死盯住政治不放更为现实的冲突解决办法。

极端贫困是爆发冲突的主要原因和警报信号。世界上最贫困的地方,比如达尔富尔,爆发战争的可能性就要比富裕地区大得多。这不仅符合人们的常识,而且数据分析与研究也证实了这样的看法。用联合国环境规划署的话讲,“在达尔富尔的土地退化、沙漠化和爆发冲突之间,存在着极强的相互联系。”

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