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增长政策的蜕变

Oct 11, 2021 Dani Rodrik

发自剑桥—直以来发展政策都会被划分为两种类型。一种方法直接针对穷人，着力通过收入支持、健康和教育干预以及增加获取信贷机会来缓解单个家庭的贫困状况；另一种则专注于借助全面性宏观经济和贸易政策或法律和监管改革来增加经济机会和提升整体生产力。人们将第一种称之为社会政策，第二种为增长政策。

这两类政策通常是互补的。总量增长不一定能惠及所有人（尤其是穷人），因此即便增长政策做得再好也需要出台一些脱贫项目。但有时这两种政策也被视为可以互相替代的两者。

比如说，越来越多的随机政策实验应用使分析家们能够以宏观经济或整体经济政策很少能做到的方式去探究与各类社会政策（如现金补助或教育和健康干预措施）相关的因果证据。这反过来又令许多学者和从业者调低了增长政策相对社会政策的实际价值。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 12 Comments on this article

ivan Oct 28, 2021

Hard to think that governments can help informal firms with their business plans in countries where government firms and departments themselves don't have good business plans.
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Walter Ubal Giordano Oct 20, 2021

I like this view. I would like to see strong cases that supports this statement.
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Walter Ubal Giordano Oct 20, 2021

Note that many agriculture value chains of products such as cacao, tomato which are landing in developed countries also represent opportunities to improve local economies. In some cases, it may help incorporate women in labor markets.
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Piyush Ozarde Oct 18, 2021

This article shows that even the best economists in the world are left with no real ideas beyond wishful thinking that "everything needs to be better". Land is losing value, populations are declining, the economies are moving toward an era where unskilled human beings themselves are no more needed. We need a strong de-growth model and strategies to peacefully execute it.
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Madurai Padmanabhan Oct 17, 2021

Globalization as mentioned, favored the high end, professionalised and skilled members of society. Their services fulfilling a demand in richer sections of local & global markets.

Thus diffusing at best and neglecting at worst the need to enhance the value of “local” services that met the demand of price sensitive segments of the domestic market.

Standardisation, professionalising and investing in the growth of such enterprises will certainly reach the lower income sections of the population.

In fact international institutions should invest in building south-south links that create scale in ‘not too capital intensive” productive activities.

The return on capital model to finance growth may need an alternative:

Is getting a better return on Natural and human capital in developing nation select sectors possible?

As well as FX risk elimination at the national level for funds that facilitate the alternate plan realistic?

Are cross border communities/ unions a good bet?

The answers I am sure are known; however without a mindset change or perhaps the fear of wealth redistribution examined, attempts to work the alternatives are left in the starting blocks.
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Joe Ryan Oct 17, 2021

It's too soon for most developing countries to give up on the combination of "industrialization" and social policy that Prof. Rodrik describes at the beginning of the essay.

"Industrialization" in quotes because it means development of production that uses a wide range of up-to-date technology, achieves returns to scale, and reaches global markets. More of that is still needed to finance expanded social redistribution policy, which developing countries should double-down on.

Just because it's not novel or "next generation" doesn't mean it's bad.
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Junior Garcia Oct 17, 2021

So does it mean that all pre-industrialization societies were poor? Is it not a mistake to reduce the situation of poverty only in terms of income? Is it not a mistake to reduce the fight against poverty only to industrial productivity? What about other sources of well-being that are outside the market? The situation of poverty is a situation created by society, not the economy (economic system). People's situation of poverty is the result of a social decision, not an economic one.
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Didier Vanoverberghe Oct 17, 2021

Hello
Without figures this is an opinion. Thus I give figures from the 20 past years. The Wealth of a Nation is the discounted sum of all its revenues less reinvestments, that leads to a very simple formula Wealth= Valorisator * Capital.
In twenty years for China the Wealth stars from
3 (valorisator) *$ 4,500 B = $13,500 Billion to
6(Valorisator) * $45,000 B = $270, 000 Billion
Two reasons :
the Valorisator changes from 3 to 6 because the change from agriculture to industry
the Capital was multiply by 10
China is a plant for the World !

During the same period for USA the Valorisator was divided by 2 ,because industries went to China (example GE activities), and the Capital multiply by 3 in 20 years.
With a valorisator of 2.5 USA increases inequalities, because at least 1 point of Valorisator is for revenues of Capital (the Q ox Tobin) thus the part for taxes and salaries is less than 2.5 (and was 4 , 20 years ago), this leads to more inequalities and for européan countries to more unemployment. So I think firstly a country has to manage its portfolio activities .
This is a new theory,based on figures.

Economy works differently: Episode 2: The notion of Wealth overcomes that of permanent income and deletes the Ricard-Barro equivalence, making it possible to rationally regulate the level of debt

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3934063

I hoped this could help
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vic lai Oct 12, 2021

Well, there is no need to help the high-wage workers already working in a high-end service sector, whether in a developing or developed country.
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The low-end service workers in a developed country can be said to be free-riders --- most of these "small and big boats" are constantly being lifted by the high rising tide flowing from the country's highly-productive manufacturing sector, which has already occupied both high ends of the Smiling Curves of their products.
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But numerous low-end service workers in many developing countries cannot similarly benefit from their mostly-exports-oriented manufacturing sector, because there are no tides, or the tides are simply not high enough.
Increased productivity in the low-end manufacturing sectors of these developing countries, which are occupying the lowest parts of the Smiling Curves of their products, and which are competing fiercely with their counterparts in other developing countries in a race-to-the-bottom game through exporting similar merchandises to the developed countries, will only end up further lowering their already-low exports prices, or revaluing the exchange rates of the currencies of their countries, without being able to significantly raise their real wage rates over time.
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I don't know how to solve this problem. Do you ?
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Andrés Galia Oct 12, 2021

I believe that there is one part of the problem that has been omitted, even if the author points in some way to it when he mentions what happened in the 19th century during the Industrial Revolution: a fair redistribution of wealth. Economic growth is not a sufficient condition, it is necessary . But the trickle down theory was just a fairy-tale invented by the neo-liberals to keep favoring the rich. Just have a look at what happened in the UK and USA after, respectively, Thatcher and Reagan.
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Elizabeth Pula Oct 11, 2021

A reclamation model/s need development and application to appropriate scale for stategized and complementary communities. The interactivities would create expansion to new economic growth.

Review the rebuilding of Dresden/HIroshima regions after WW2.
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Faruk Timuroglu Oct 11, 2021

Landowners in EU member countries are getting richer and richer with cash grants from the EU budget but not the farmers working on the land. Farmers' migration from the countryside to urban areas may raise their incomes; migrant workers from Afghanistan may replace them in farms!
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增长政策的蜕变

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