Monetary tightening Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Die Finanzvolatilität der Zukunft

LONDON – Anleiheinvestoren sind vom Mars und Zentralbanker von der Venus – dies könnte man jedenfalls aus der negativen Reaktion Anleihenmärkte auf die Tatsache schließen, dass die außergewöhnliche Geldpolitik der letzten zehn Jahre ihrem Ende entgegen geht. Auf den Märkten für riskantere Vermögenswerte werden die Warnsignale der Anleihenmärkte allerdings ignoriert. Zu Recht?

In den Industrieländern ist die Inflation weiterhin niedrig. Trotzdem brennen die Zentralbanken in Ländern wie den Vereinigten Staaten und Großbritannien darauf, die geldpolitischen Eingriffe der Zeit nach der globalen Finanzkrise von 2008 zu verringern.

Die Zentralbanken, auch die Inflationsziele setzen, glauben, Inflationsänderungen bei stabilen Inflationserwartungen seien in der wirtschaftlichen Schwäche begründet. Nimmt diese Schwäche ab – wie heute, wo die Arbeitslosigkeit im Konjunkturzyklus deutlich unter dem Durchschnitt (und in den USA und Großbritannien auf dem tiefsten Niveau seit Jahrzehnten) liegt – werde die Inflation früher oder später anziehen.

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