الشرق الأوسط والواقعية النفطية

تل أبيب ـ أياً كانت الأهمية التي اكتسبتها القوى النفطية الصاعدة خارج منطقة الشرق الأوسط، فسوف تظل المنطقة محتفظة بمكانتها باعتبارها المصدر الرئيسي لتزويد العالم بالطاقة لأعوام طويلة قادمة. وخلافاً لروسيا فإن البلدان الأعضاء في منظمة الدول المصدرة للبترول (أوبك) في الشرق الأوسط تعمل كاتحاد احتكاري ينتج أقل كثيراً من سعته الإنتاجية. وبمعدلات الإنتاج الحالية فإن روسيا سوف تخرج من الساحة بحلول عام 2020. والظروف لا تختلف جذرياً في أفريقيا.

وهذا يعني أن أمن الطاقة سوف يظل متوقفاً إلى حد كبير على السياسات المعمول بها في الشرق الأوسط، مع استمرار منتجي النفط في المنطقة في السعي إلى إملاء الشروط على السوق العالمية. وهناك أمر مزعج على نحو خاص، وهو يتمثل في الارتباطات الواضحة بين الطموح العسكري والتحول في الثروات الذي تجلبه صادرات النفط. والحقيقة أن برنامج الأسلحة النووية الإيراني والحشد العسكري العراقي الهائل في التسعينيات ليشكلان مثالاً واضحاً للارتباط المهلك بين الروح العسكرية المتطرفة والقوة التي تمتلكها سوق الطاقة.

وكما كانت الحال دوماً فإن التهديدات التي تحركها دوافع سياسية لإمدادات النفط تهيمن الآن على المناقشات المتعلقة بأمن الطاقة. وكما أكدت لنا الحالة العراقية فإن الحروب والاضطرابات الداخلية لا تؤثر على مستوى إمدادات النفط في الأمد القصير فحسب، بل وقد تؤدي أيضاً إلى تقويض السعة الإنتاجية بعيدة الأمد لأي دولة من خلال عرقلة مشاريع الصيانة والاستثمار.

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