Syrian soldiers Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

打破中东的恐怖循环

菲兹—7月,伊拉克总理阿巴迪宣布伊斯兰国已经被逐出伊拉克第二大城市摩苏尔。伊斯兰国占领摩苏尔长达三年。迟早,伊斯兰国还将失去其自称的哈里发首都,也是最后一座其所控制的真正城市拉卡。但这些失败并不意味着伊斯兰国的灭亡,更不意味着伊斯兰恐怖主义的灭亡,也不意味着中东最激烈的冲突将在不远的将来得到解决。

诚然,伊斯兰哈里发梦碎将削弱伊斯兰国和相关组织招募不满的年轻人的能力。目前,穿越土耳其进入叙利亚加入伊斯兰国的外国潜在圣战分子数量暴跌,从每月2,000人减少到50人左右。

但这些组织仍然有强大的吸引力。最根本的是,它们能够为幻灭的年轻人提供一种目标感和归属感。这一目标包含了杀戮、恐怖和骚乱,这一事实使得它对失望和心怀怨恨的青年号召力更加强大了。

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