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打破中东的恐怖循环

菲兹—7月,伊拉克总理阿巴迪宣布伊斯兰国已经被逐出伊拉克第二大城市摩苏尔。伊斯兰国占领摩苏尔长达三年。迟早,伊斯兰国还将失去其自称的哈里发首都,也是最后一座其所控制的真正城市拉卡。但这些失败并不意味着伊斯兰国的灭亡,更不意味着伊斯兰恐怖主义的灭亡,也不意味着中东最激烈的冲突将在不远的将来得到解决。

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诚然,伊斯兰哈里发梦碎将削弱伊斯兰国和相关组织招募不满的年轻人的能力。目前,穿越土耳其进入叙利亚加入伊斯兰国的外国潜在圣战分子数量暴跌,从每月2,000人减少到50人左右。

但这些组织仍然有强大的吸引力。最根本的是,它们能够为幻灭的年轻人提供一种目标感和归属感。这一目标包含了杀戮、恐怖和骚乱,这一事实使得它对失望和心怀怨恨的青年号召力更加强大了。

尽管最近频频受挫,但消除伊斯兰国的威胁仍然充满了未知数,不可过早下结论。从基地组织的历史看,即使滋养了恐怖组织的国家失败了,激进意识形态仍然能够继续煽动远近地区的暴力。恐怖组织领导人只需要调整方法,就能继续吸引新加入者,身处友好邻邦边境之外计划新的袭击。

在这方面,伊拉克恐怖组织将继续利用宗派主义。在2003年美国入侵伊拉克时,伊拉克早已被宗派主义所分裂。更广泛地讲,它们可以利用逊尼派和什叶派穆斯林之间的紧张对峙,吸引异化的逊尼派青年。

埃及、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋决定中断与卡塔尔的外交关系就体现了这一越来越危险的动态。三国与卡塔尔断交是因为卡塔尔据称与地区恐怖组织和沙特阿拉伯的主要地区影响力对手——伊朗关系密切。也门的灾难性的代理战争也体现了这一越来越危险的动态。也门已经成为沙特-伊朗权力斗争的主战场。

在这样的背景下,伊斯兰国很有可能从其在埃及西奈半岛、伊拉克、利比亚和也门的零散基地中,继续计划和执行中东和其他地区的恐怖袭击。但有办法避免这样的结果——或至少实现伤害最小化。

首先,阿拉伯世界的政府和非政府行动方必须切断一切与恐怖组织的财务关系。除了官方转移,这还意味着中止个别公民私下里为恐怖组织提供资金。域内国家已经订立了严厉的法律,政府应该更有效地对为恐怖主义提供资金的行为展开执法。

与此同时,宗教和政治领袖必须大声谴责滋生了圣战运动的暴力伊斯兰意识形态,向对待挑战他们自身权威的人那样对待这些意识形态。Qui tacet consentire videtur(缄默意味着允许)。在这个例子中,默许壮了恐怖行动分子的胆,也带来了死亡。

中东国家已经成为极端意识形态的温床,向全世界输出恐怖。如果它们想要恢复名声,重塑社会和经济健康,就必须坚决扼杀恐怖招募者的诱惑力。阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥和突尼斯都已经朝这一方向采取了一些行动,但它们需要配合。

和这些国家一样,其他中东国家决不能因为作为恐怖实体的伊斯兰国的表面灭亡而陷入自满。最终,打破阿拉伯世界恐怖和暴力循环的唯一办法是解决伊斯兰教内部的冲突。但是,要想实现这一点域内各国政府必须依靠封杀和谴责双管齐下的策略。

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