President Donald Trump and German Chancellor Angela Merkel

Politics

默克尔的报应是欧洲——乃至世界的——不幸

May 29, 2018 Yanis Varoufakis

约翰内斯堡——欧洲领导人在解读美国总统唐纳德·特朗普针对美国传统盟友所表现出来的敌意、或者特朗普政府迫不及待地推翻国际秩序时最常犯的一个错误就是假定这一切行为都史无前例。但这根本就不是事实。

“我的哲学是所有外国人都想搞死我们，因此我们要做的就是先把他们搞死。”1971年时任美国财政部长约翰·康纳利在成功说服理查德·尼克松总统通过终止布雷顿森林体系来惩罚欧洲时就曾这样提出。

同样，特朗普肯定会同意“在平衡稳定的国际体系所提出的要求和保持国家政策的自由度之间，”美国明智地“选择了后者”。时任纽约联储主席保罗·沃尔克在七年后的一次演讲中评价尼克松决策时曾这样说。这位美联储未来的主席进一步宣称“20世纪80年代的合理目标是…世界经济有控制的解体”。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 59 Comments on this article

Peter Schaeffer Nov 6, 2018

Merkel has not addressed the problems facing Germany. Indeed, she has made several over them worse. The four problems are competition from China, the economic failures of Europe, external security, and mass immigration.

In the short and medium term, the rise of China (and more generally) Asia has been huge plus for Germany (and terrible for Southern Europe). China / Asia has been a huge buyer of Germany’s medium Tech exports (capital good) and an ever expanding source of cheap consumer goods. What’s their not to like? Of course, these trends have been catastrophic for Southern Europe. Southern Europe concentrated on lower-tech consumer goods and has been devastates by Asian competition.

Has Germany responded to these trends by demand (or even supporting) protection for Southern Europe? Not exactly. The German approach has been “we make money from global free trade and the rest of Europe can go to h…”.

Of course, the world isn’t standing still. China / Asia will move inexorably upscale over the next few decades. China / Asia will (over time) be able to make the medium Tech capital goods Germany now exports. Of course, they will be able to make them at considerably lower cost than in Germany. Germany will loose its lucrative Asia markers and (worse) lose its global markets.

Has Merkel done anything to prepare Germany for the coming shifts in the global economy? No. In fairness to her, I don’t see any awareness of these issues anywhere in Germany. Germany is sleep-walking into disaster. Pathetic but true.

The second deep issue is the economic, political, and social failure of Europe / Euro. A Europe with a prosperous North and impoverished South cannot survive. Actually, it probably can survive. However, a Europe where Germany dictates terms to Club Med is doomed. Club Med will eventually rebel and revolt. When it (Club Med) revolts Germany will find that it has precious few allies. German arrogance has seen to that.

What has Merkel done about this? She has made it vastly worse. Her insistence on the Euro, ‘free trade’, public sector debt enforcement, and ‘no transfer union, no debt union’ is a catastrophe. In this case, there are plenty of Germans who foresee the dark future. Did/does Merkel listen to the voices of sanity? Not exactly. The clarion call of ‘ever deeper union’ has been her idée fixe.

The third critical issue is external security. Germany (and Europe) has abandoned the necessary commitment to arms that a sovereign nation must have. To state this bluntly German and Europe just aren’t spending enough on defense to hold their own against Russia and the rest of the world. Europe has resources (technology, people, and money) that utterly dwarf Russia. However, Europe has been conspicuously unwilling to use them. The European ‘strategy” has been to whine about Trump, rather than build the military machines Europe needs to defend itself.

What has Merkel done about this? Nothing would be a good summary. Of course, that isn’t exactly true. She has criticized Trump. Have other voices in Germany raised the alarm? Yes and Merkel has ignored them.

The fourth doomsday issue is migration. Merkel’s record has been a consummate disaster. Mass migration leading inexorably to mass crime leading to a mass cover-up. Of course, Germany has decades of experience with migration from MENA (Middle-East, North Africa). After many decades, MENA immigrants remain poorly assimilated, poorly educated, and hostile (in some cases) to Germany.

Back in 2005, Der Spiegel wrote an article “The Death of a Muslim Woman "The Whore Lived Like a German"”. It is the sad tale of the life and death of Hatin Surucu. What were her crimes? Dating (ethnic) German boys and wearing jeans. In 2010, a leading figure (Thilo Sarrazin) in the German SPD wrote a book (“Germany Abolishes Itself” – “Deutschland schafft sich ab”) wrotes a book describing Germany’s decades of failure with MENA immigration.

In spite of Germany’s long and bad history with MENA immigration, Merkel opened the flood gates in 2015. She still defends her debacle. The definition of insanity is “Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results”. By that definition Merkel is insane.

Overall, Merkel has been a disaster. A disaster for Germany, a disaster for Europe, and a disaster for the West. While Berlin has burned she has devoted herself to splashing gasoline around.

She will not be missed.
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Logic Addict Jun 5, 2018

These article reminds me a situation, when somebody who lost all his money gambling, blaming a casino for not allowing playing on credit – excessive austerity. I guess Mr. Varoufakis is in the right position to try to save EU, but he needs to address other, much less pleasurable questions. Like, how could it happen, that providing correct statistical information to EU became a matter of good will? And many others uncomfortable questions.
Mr. Varoufakis should also consider another thing. Today’s populists, like Italian, are not really populists. They are childish, kindhearted and almost cute. But real populists are preparing to step in. And they wouldn’t mutter about Germans who wasn’t probably right in the way they handled crisis made by other nations. They will state clearly that Germany is to blame for all problems with economy, demography and migration, and claim Germany for compensation. It’s not fantasy; Poland already has idea to claim Germany for reparation. By articles like these, Mr. Varoufakis is equipping real populists with “evidences”.
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Henry Rech Jun 5, 2018

In few, they hurried us aboard a bark,
Bore us some leagues to sea; where they prepar'd
A rotten carcass of a boat, not rigg'd,
Nor tackle, sail, nor mast; the very rats
Instinctively had quit it.

Shakespeare's The Tempest.
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François Dupont Jun 5, 2018

Even Slovenia now rejoins the camp of EU-phobia.
It's a fact, EU's operational policies of all sorts since a decade desperate 99% of Europeans, even the most pro-Europe and constructive ones. No confederation can manage vital competences with cleverness and respect of Democracy standards. Just a sovereign European State of law can manage internal and external policies over the rivalries between european States, half of them still monarchic regimes. But till many local govs are just playing for their own in their capitals or in Brussels, refuse to ear what says Pulse of Europe "hey Brussels, change yourself, not us", the "us" being the legally European Citizens' voice for a serious change, not just the ancient claim for justice of just self considered patriotic local citizens, the big bug installed at core of Brussels' structure of power still operates like a cancer.
Sorry for Germans, but it's true they attribute to Mrs Merkel good skills and vision she is unable to have. She provocates the suicide of Europe on top of decision making organs of EU. Then of Germany, but she ignores this fatal consequence.
Despite the federal public powers organization in Germany is certainly one of the most democratic and efficient of the world, the egoistic prevalence of Heimat on all other considerations, understable at the citizen level, is ununderstable at the level of the german gov. All Europe will never comply with a prussian Europe : trying to implement that is simply the mark of a huge disrespect toward scandinavian, eastern and southern Europe. But all Germans aren't of that stuff. Pulse of Europe, a large paneuropean citizen movement is born in Frankfurt-am-Main in 2016, but as really european first, what is good news.
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Felipe Morris Jun 4, 2018

Socialists tend to blame others for the problems they create when the policies they support are implemented. YV is simply another socialist that wants to blame others for the economic situation of various countries in the Eurozone that implemented poor economic policies, which included excessive government spending and living beyond their means, and refused to carry on the badly needed structural reforms to strenghthen instituctions and curtail corrupt practices.
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markz Jun 4, 2018

Staying in the Eurozone with Italian parameters is of course tough. There are two ways addressing this - you either make the internal reforms that make you competitive under the regime (Spain, Portugal, Ireland soon France - before the Baltics have all gone that way and are reaping the benefits now andeven Greece is growing again after being pushed that way. But if you can't or are not willing to go through this - you have to quit.
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Emilio Zuniga Jun 4, 2018

YV is right in the mistaken position of Germany and the ECB on how to deal with the Greek crisis. But you can’t jump from that to blame German surplus as the malaise of the EZ economic past crisis. The success of its economy is mostly due to its economic reforms in the early 90’s where wage policies, open markets, and globalization of German business created a robust modern economy. Against this growth path we had populist policies deeply entrenched in Greece, Italy and France. A monetary union alone can’t make a miracle and as Spain shows, deep structural reforms must follow with some degree of austerity to expect sound economic grow within the monetary union. However in cases like Greece or Italy exit from the EZ may result in better way to make the appropriate adjustment.
- Michael Parsons Jun 4, 2018
  
  Actually Germany's success is due to undervaluedexports by pricing in the euro, otherwise markets would have revalued German currency upwards. Financial trickery (like the 'bail outs' ) and nothing to do with a need for Greek structural adjustments etc. whose economy has been swamped by - in effect- German dumping its surpluses on Greece etc. hence the savage defence of the unfair euro system which cripples countries with deficits in the absenc e of monetary transfers from countries in surplus - an unworkable set-up that needs to be dealt with by issuing local money to operate along side the euro in each country.
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Luigi Bonatti Jun 3, 2018

Could somebody inform Varoufakis that Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio DID FORM A GOVERNMENT?
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Priscila Lapuente Jun 3, 2018

The voice of reason!
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Oliver Denker Jun 3, 2018

Thank God, Yanis Varoufakis put everything right. For a moment I feared the Greeks and Italians may have been responsible for all the debt they created.
- Michael Parsons Jun 4, 2018
  
  This is a mistaken view. Britain's national debt, for example, has increased steadily since it began in the 1690's, and cannot be and never will be 'paid off'; in effect it funded UK growth. Unfortunately economics today is not generally taught with section on money, money's creation 'out of nothing' by fiat; and he fact that money is itself debt, e.g. bankers' debits are money, credit notes are money, the national debt is money, cash is the non-interest-bearing circulating part of the national debt etc..
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- Petros Diveris Jun 3, 2018
  
  Is this all you really understood from this piece? Which part of the surplus accumulation weakens Europe both internally and externally you don't understand? Who stands to lose from Trump's tariffs, what enabled them, and who's going to fight against them when Europeans are increasingly disillusioned? Unless you sit on a massive pile of assets you should take a step back and have a think before attempting to moralise. Besides, no one forced the northern banks to lend.
  - george sos Jun 4, 2018
    
    spot on petros.
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Léonard Lovallo Jun 3, 2018

Hardly on the same side of the political spectrum as Yanis but I read him as he is perceptive and makes very good points. Anyhow, it has long been my opinion that imposing an austerity program on a country in the economic distress is akin to putting an anorexic on a diet. Additionally it has been my opinion since the onset of the Greek 'crises' that it is Germany that should exit the common currency as the excess German trade surplus is incompatible with a common currency. To explain: a common currency among sovereign nation-states is essentially a fixed exchange rate regime. The American economist ('Chicago School') Milton Friedman posited over 60 years ago (in what some might call perhaps an economic theorem) that when the economies of the countries in a fixed exchange rate system begin to diverge they will continue to do so and the divergence will only increase -why Bretton Woods failed. Despite Schauble's loud talk during the Greek crises the Germans were never going to cause Greece to exit the euro-zone and risk the eventual disintegration thereof. The German economic imperative is: 'export or die' and the common currency serves that imperative quite well, thank you very much -to the detriment of a number the other members of the common currency.
- george sos Jun 4, 2018
  
  Funny you said "Germans were never going to cause a Grexit" (paraphrasing a bit).
  YV said all along that if we (Greece under syriza) were to stand our ground back in 2015 ,we d eventually have won the moral and practical argument against austerity, and Scauble(and his gang of "ideologues" who cr and the vulture bankers of Eeated the "lazy southerners " story .
  Tsipras and his administration back then got scared because in Greece ,the citizens were not yet ready to back such a stance,they were subjected to brainwashing for decades and especially the last 6 years 2009 onwards) ,so most were confused abt the consequences + some idiots tried to take personal advantage using this grexit story as a scaremongering tactic so that people fall in line.
  We had a chance and we blew it.
  Italy has a different kind of chance today ,it has nothing to do with Greece in reality ,there the nationalist scum is on the rise and has taken over the political discourse.And their end game is not the bettering of peoples lives,even if they say so all the time.
  The italian situation is the Trump era of europe.
  The neonazi and the right (conservative only in name,essentialy nazis)are the sister parties of Trump's ideology-grab wealth ,extort,kill,all justified ,make italy great again kind of shaitte
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alan wright Jun 3, 2018

Against a background of increasing indebtedness in Europe I struggle to recognise the excess savings over investment claim. We all know that the money supply increased enormously the nineties and noughties, and we also know that precious little of it went into investment. Savings doesn't seem particularly relevant?
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Kurt Bayer Jun 3, 2018

I, I, I, Varou, how vain can you be? On substance, he is right, austerity at home has led to export surpluses, forgetting the large European market, is a costly mistake
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Michael Parsons Jun 3, 2018

It ill behoves Varoufakis to write thus. His electors were braver than he and his government, and by clinging to the euro and Germany Greece merely exemplified the catastrophic failure of 'parliamentary socialism' or reformism seen today in thepersonj of its toady leader. Continued suffering and impoverishment flow from this lack or courage to face the bankers and challenge their unequal loan arrangements. A tough refusal to be dragged along in the wake of US policy by the 'liberal, internationalist' establishment gives a fighting chance to rebuild our nations that were shattered by the US European intervention in Churchill's foolish expansion of UK's military adventure in Poland and needless destruction of Europe and the Empire.
America after all has never kept to a single one of the many tteaties it has ever signed, starting with the 14 or so with the native indians, if my history is correct. Thewir are enemies kin the West as well as the East, and what he dscribes as a foolish nationalism and expulsio of foreigners is the beginnijg of a relistaic politics that recognises that, and seeks to regain our independence, and is far more likely to suceed thaGreece's failed efforts of which he ws a conspicuous and urelaible part.
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Jonathan Engel Jun 1, 2018

One is so pleased, once again, to read the clear and entirely brilliant logic of Mr. Varoufakis. Crises have to be regarded as periods of opportunity to change the structures in our minds and our rules which created the crisis that reality is imposing on us. The inanities of European "governance" have reintroduced mass poverty to Italy. Time to change that governance.
- hanno achenbach Jun 3, 2018
  
  Nonsense.
  - Petros Diveris Jun 3, 2018
    
    How come? Would you care to elaborate?
    - hanno achenbach Jun 3, 2018
      
      "The inanities of European "governance" have reintroduced mass poverty to Italy." Self- evident nonsense. The Italians managed to do that by themselves.
      - Michael Parsons Jun 4, 2018
        
        Hardly - since they use the euro which cannot revalue and so adjust surpluses and deficits. Unless Italy introduces its own internal currency to run alongside the euro, it has no adjustment mechanism when in deficit (except begging for treacherous loan write-offs) and so ends up a victim of artificially cheap Gertman exports priced, as they are, in euros that would have, in Germany's case, become more expensive . Hence Germany's savage defence of this straight-jacket system.
        
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Henk Crop May 30, 2018

Not a word of recognition for how to a prosperous society is build.
Hard work, decent living, no domineering elite, democracy, enligthed state control, entrepreneurship, spent no more money than you can afford.
Germany, like several other countries in the World such as the, US, Canada, Australia, China, South Korea and several North European countries have shown how to do that.
The author blames Germany for their misfortune. Not mentioning the repeated Greek betrayal of the EU, the countries who did not restructure their economy (France, Italy ), countries who did not control their labor strikes ( France, Italy), who built huge debts and than expect others to pay for it ( Greece, France (Macron) ).
Monetary necessary reforms cannot hide these socio-political differences. It is time to loosen the Euro ties between the EU members somewhat.
- Petros Diveris Jun 3, 2018
  
  Germany leads the EU. Which part of this sentence you don't understand?
  - hanno achenbach Jun 3, 2018
    
    What part of that sentence is relevant?
    - Petros Diveris Jun 3, 2018
      
      That Germany's wellbeing is not the only thing that should concern the leader of the EU. The EU is a bloc, unlike Canada and Australia. As for the US, well, I think you get the idea.
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RE Mant May 29, 2018

Considering liberals like Varoufakis caused all these financial troubles and the consequent migrations, I'll have to consider this rant just a little hypocritical.
- J M May 31, 2018
  
  Strictly speaking I think you would have to call him a Marxist economist. Whilst I dont agree with alot of his politics what is refreshing is his candour in explaining how the large movements of capital across the EU economies impact politics. No one in Germany wants to admit that Greece was not allowed to default/restructure its debt because that would have bankrupted the German and French banks and instead the EU tax payer took on the burden through new lending programs. They didn't allow Greece to use a completely orthodox IMF style response to a finding itself in an unsustainable debt position (whatever the 'fault' in getting into that position) and similarly are refusing to allow southern European economies to use a more inflationary set of policies to grow domestic demand.
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- P Verhoeven May 30, 2018
  
  Heh, I don't think Varoufakis is a liberal, rather a modernist social democrat. Liberals are indeed to blame though, Tatcher, Reagan, Greenspan, etc started deregulation of finance and the taxpayers ended up paying the bill decades later.
  
  As for migration, it's required to have migration to supply shovel-ready labor and equalize the postwar age demographics. After the fall of the USSR liberal governments pushing for open migration opened the floodgates to cheap labor, thus cheap goods, which allowed relaxation of real-income growth and it broke the bargaining power of the unions. This was a great short term strategy and it's telling those things are never discussed in this context.
  - Léonard Lovallo Jun 3, 2018
    
    Personal opinion, who is a 'Liberal' depends upon from which side of the Atlantic one is taking the view: On the European side a 'liberal' (or neo-liberal if you will denoting the 20th century resurgence of 19th century 'liberal' economic philosophy) is one in favor of 'laissez-faire', less government regulation and oversight of activities in the economic sphere which usually leads to diminished 'social safety net' protections for the citizenry in general while on the American side a 'liberal' has come to be the label applied to one in favor of increased government regulations of the market economy (to reign in and prevent excesses) and the expansion of the social safety net protections. So, from the European point of view as well as that the European definition is the proper one, Yanis is hardly a 'liberal'
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- Dan Allen May 29, 2018
  
  How did Varoufakis cause those problems? He was there for 6 months. If you're talking about Greece, a country without a social welfare net, the problems were caused by the purchase of military weaponry by corrupt officials in cahoots with powerful European banks and multinational corporations. They skimmed a lot off the top of those $150 billion in contracts in the last 10 years alone.
  - P Verhoeven May 30, 2018
    
    While the Greeks made plenty of mistakes over the past decades, it's worth remembering the country was ruled as a dictatorship until 75. Generations of politicians were brought up in a corrupt society. Not that that is an excuse for corruption, but everything in human life is relative, and institutions are slow to change out of their own volition.
    - M M May 31, 2018
      
      PV, it takes two (2) to Tango, the Greeks did not Tango by themselves, the French had a major role to play in the Greek politics after (and shortly prior to) the fall of the dictartorship and the Germans since the introduction of the Euro, thus all the dodgy arms deal (defunct and very expensive german sub-marines), Siemens, etc.
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Lamine, Ingmar Traore May 29, 2018

In my opinion the financial strategy forced on greece predominantly by germany is by far not the only reason for the anti-european atmosphere today. Maybe within greece but not all over europe. So are the loans to greece not the only reason why there is a rising group of anti-europeanists within germany. Also greece made mistakes and profited from europe in the past.
- Petros Diveris Jun 3, 2018
  
  Nowhere did Varoufakis say that Germany's awful stance on Greece is the only reason underpinning the increasingly "anti-european" sentiment. Also, he didn't say that Greece made no mistakes.
  - Michael Parsons Jun 4, 2018
    
    No: he quit the field, was not up to the test of practically, and now snipes at the rest of them. Some genius!
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Peter Lintner May 29, 2018

It´ s not clear to me why Varoufakis calls those who are against mass immigration from different cultures as xenophobes. Europeans are against mass immigration not out of hate, but out of love to their country, culture and heritage. What´ s wrong with that? European countries have no right to preserve their culture or heritage?
- Gerry H May 30, 2018
  
  A couple of million migrants means nothing when you have a population of some four hundred fifty million. Also, the migrants are no threat to the cultural integrity or the traditions of the countries they end up in. People resent and fear them because they are so culturally and racially different. That resentment may never pass but "xenophobe" is not far from the mark.
  - Michael Parsons Jun 4, 2018
    
    So a few English moving self-protected into India, Africa etc made no difference there, our presence was no great shakes among the millions? Try telling them.
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  - Barry Rosenfeld Jun 1, 2018
    
    The migrants entering the EU can not be assimilated because they adhere to a religious-based culture that belongs in the early Middle Ages. They demand special accommodation for their beliefs and behaviour, but they refuse to accept the norms of their hosts. As reprehensible as xenophobia is, it is not difficult to understand.
    
    The challenge, yet unmet, is to find a way to accommodate both the hosts and guests. If this is not possible, perhaps the guests might find a more congenial place to live, perhaps they could consider returning to those accommodating places they so desired to leave.
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  - Peter Lintner May 30, 2018
    
    Which european country has a population of 450 milion?
    
    European identity is not migrant identity, hence any european country that wants to preserve its culture and heritage must be against mass immigration by default since that´ s an exact opposite of its identity.
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- Oliver Herrmann May 29, 2018
  
  I do not understand your comment. Mr. Varoufakis' article is about economic policy and, in particular, economic policy measures in a currency union. And can agree or disagree with his analysis or suggest reasons why he is wrong, etc. but why do you bring up culture and heritage?
  - Michael Parsons Jun 4, 2018
    
    Because deracination by 'free movement' and the reduction of human beings to 'homo economicus' denies humanity and all that is sacred. inherited and valued. Empties life of meaning.
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  - Petros Diveris Jun 3, 2018
    
    Well said.
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george sos May 29, 2018

The EU /German greedy rich banksters etc will eventually try to escape from be eaten alive by the peoples of europe the same way their forefathers the nazis did many years ago (went to USA to hide,get employed by the US government etc)
Are we going to allow them to succeed?
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M M May 29, 2018

" Today Italy is not free; it is occupied financially by Germans, French and Eurocrats" - Matteo Salvini

"We don't have a Euro in our pockets. We have a German Mark which they called the Euro"- Matteo Salvini

Any similarities with Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc....
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M M May 29, 2018

"Why don't we just say that in this country it's pointless that we vote, as the ratings agencies, financial lobbies decide the governments" - Matteo Salvini

" In a democracy, if we are still in a democracy, there's only one thing to do, let the Italian people have their say" - Matteo Salvini

Any similarities with Greece in 2015, with Spain, with Portugal, etc....
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默克尔的报应是欧洲——乃至世界的——不幸

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