默克尔的新德国

Nov 13, 2017 Marcel Fratzscher

柏林—德国总理默克尔的基督教民主联盟（CDU）在9月的联邦选举中赢得了多数，但这并不意味着德国的未来已经水落石出。默克尔需求与绿党和自由民主党结成新的执政联盟，结果如何不但将影响德国在未来四年的经济轨迹，还将决定德国向真正开放社会的转型的命运。

不出一代人，曾经的欧洲病夫德国就一跃成为全球经济强国。但事实上，德国当前的经济成功与其说是好政策的结果，不如说是拜（特别是欧洲的）有利的外部环境所赐，外部环境保证了德国出口的强劲需求。

平心而论，德国通过重要的国内经济改革才能够抓住外部需求。但这些改革在默克尔掌权之前早已开始，而在默克尔12年的执政生涯中，她基本上没有实施什么有意义的经济改革。比如，国内私人投资一直疲软，部分是因为服务业过度监管和沉重的官僚主义负担。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Barry Rosenfeld Nov 22, 2017

If Merke's CDU won a majority in the September election, why does she have to form a coalition (para 1)? A professor of macroeconomics should know the difference between a majority and a plurality.

As for economics, the author states that not "good policies," but "favorable external conditions" that provide for strong demand in Europe for German exports are responsible for economic success. Why not be clear: it was good policies, especially the decision to create the Euro, that has led to a chronic and substantial undervaluation of German export costs relative to other Euro zone members as they cannot deflate their common currency relative to Germany. As a macro economist, the author should know this as well.

How can one be "German" without a German currency?
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Gerald Silverberg Nov 19, 2017

It is precisely because the CDU did not win a majority that Merkel has to negotiate such a tricky coalition. Her party managed to defend its status as the largest one, but with significant losses.

Meanwhile, the AfD has entered the Bundestag and brought völkisch racism "respectability" on the national stage for the first time since 1945. Not exactly what one should call a success for the open society.
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Henk Crop Nov 15, 2017

Another challenge for Germany is the development of the EU, while plans are to made to complete the EU.
French President Emmanuel Macron already presented his ideas in "Initiative for Europe".
( see Germany's Dangerous Obsession, Jean Pisani Ferry, PS 9 November 2017 ).
Many good ideas.
However it appears to me that mr. Macron sees the EU as a unified state ( a sovereign, united, democratic Europe ).
While many, in the Netherlands at least, see the EU as a cooperation ( an united Europe of sovereign democratic states ).
This difference is most visible in the proposal to " 2. Concrete solidarity through social and tax convergence".
Such a proposal will have a great impact on the EU. It would be advisable if this is studied carefully.
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Bernhard Kopp Nov 14, 2017

It is not surprising that this gushing praise is not published here in German. It is nothing but a silly joke that Mrs. Merkel should have made Germany an 'open but divided' society. Particularly the Turks, some 800,000 at the end of the 80s, but more than 3 million today, grew not through additional 'Gastarbeiter', but solely through, chain migration of relatives and through a high reproduction rate. Mrs. Merkel has absolutely nothing to do with a development that started in the 70s. What Mrs. Merkel did do, she poured oil into the fire of ethnic resentment with seconding the statement of 'Her Federal President Christian Wulff' : Islam belongs to Germany ! Her opening of the border in 2015 just added gasoline to the already burning fire. Mrs. Merkel literally created the original AfD, which has turned right-wing populist since then without the original founders, through an almost totalitarian grip on her party and her policies since 2008. Nobody was more divisive in his/her deeds since 1949 than Mrs. Merkel.
- Henk Crop Nov 15, 2017
  
  Bernhard. Moslims interprete the Islam in various ways. The experience is that moslims find it difficult to integrate in the western world, many do not even want that. But they are here and have their rights. The Islam does not comply with some of the basic western values, such as: freedom of speech, freedom of religion, civil courts, democracy, equal rights for women, acceptance of homo's. Moslims are holding on to their 1400 year old values. It would be good if Germans hold on to their, western, rights. Rights which have sometimes required warfare to achieve.
  - Barry Rosenfeld Nov 22, 2017
    
    Do German/Western rights include the Nazi regime and its promotion of war and genocide. Germany had been a blot on Western culture for the first half of the 20th century. We await the full circle as matters begin to be less happy for Heimat.
    - Henk Crop Nov 23, 2017
      
      Barry. I am not German but I have studied that period of history extensively.
      I am not concerned about a full circle. The circumstances that caused WW1 and especially those of WW2 were very exceptional. These circumstances do not exist today anymore. Germany and other EU countries laws against discrimination and spreading hate. They do not have rights as you describe.
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j. von Hettlingen Nov 14, 2017

Marcel Fratzscher highlights how Germany has evolved under Angela Merkel, saying she will be remembered in German history more for her social rather than economic achievement. Thanks to her "talent at bridging social and political divides" has Germany been transformed into "an open society." But she has also made Germany the most popular country on earth in 2013 and the most positively viewed country in 2014.
The author says, it is imperative to keep an eye on Merkel's new coalition government, which "will not only shape Germany’s economic trajectory over the next four years; it will also determine the fate of the country’s transformation into a truly open society." The so-called Jamaica coalition - the CDU/CSU, the Greens and the Free Democrats - can delve into deep government coffers, as a result of "large fiscal surpluses to serve their respective constituents." Growth is expected to remain robust with a balanced budget in the near future.
Yet in 1999 Germany was dubbed the "sick man of Europe" In the last 10 years, it has "emerged as a global economic powerhouse," thanks to "favorable external conditions, especially in Europe, which ensured strong demand for German exports" and less to Merkel's "good policies." In fact it was her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, who had laid the groundwork for Germany's growth.
The author says there had been "few meaningful" economic reforms during Merkel's 12 years in office - "domestic private investment remains weak, partly owing to overregulated services and heavy bureaucratic burdens." While imposing austerity measures on cash-strapped eurozone countries, Germany "increased social spending on pensions and transfers, all while allowing net public investment to turn negative." Demands for tax reform from socialists and taxpayers are not heeded. Employment has risen, but low-paid workers struggle, despite booming economy.
"What Merkel has lacked in economic-policy achievements, she has made up for in bringing about social change. Under her leadership, Germany has become the open society it is today." Embracing multiculturalism, social changes and gender equality, "it is also an increasingly divided society." She was widely lauded and admired for taking in over one million refugees since 2015. With five million Muslims living in the country, it remains to be seen how well they coexist with the rest of the population, which saw for the first time since the 1930s neo-Nazis to gain many seats in Bundestag.
"Critics call Merkel the first social democratic chancellor from a conservative party, because she has embraced many progressive policies, while preaching stability and traditional values." Yet despite the billions of euros spent on family policies - like "childhood education and children’s rights" - that benefit women, who want to join the labour market, a study commissioned by the government reached the conclusion that the country's efforts to boost its low birth rate had failed. The complex benefits and tax breaks had been largely ineffective and in some cases counterproductive.
Merkel's new government faces "enormous challenges," apart from integrating the refugees and urging for "greater tolerance toward Islam and diversity." The East-West divide is still evident two decades since the Germany reunification. People clamour for more investment in the creaking infrastructure and the education system etc.
"As Germany continues to debate what it means to be German, the outcome of the current coalition negotiations will determine whether Merkel’s next government confronts these challenges effectively. If it does, Merkel will be remembered as the architect of a new German society." For the sake of the country's future the coalition partners need to put their partisan differences and interests aside. Yet it is easier said than done.
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Henk Crop Nov 13, 2017

Nice article but the question is what challenges lay ahead. Perhaps as a citizen of a neighboring country, Holland, I can list a few which need attention.
- By far the biggest and most urgent is a realistic response to the population explosion that is taking place in Africa, the Middle East and nearby Asia. It is a growth which will turn into a disaster of biblical proportions. Just Africa has now 1200 million people and will double that in the next 35 years. Such expansion will lead to poverty, loss of perpective, immigration and warfare.
Admitting a few million immigrants does not solve that problem. Worse, money spent on immigrants could be spent much productive in these countries.
If immigration has to be the solution the EU/ Germany would have to admit many hundreds of million of immigrants to offer development countries any effective relief.
That is not going to happen. Immigration has to be reduced to a
The EU / Germany has to change our outdated, from 1951, immigration laws.
These should not only consider the principles but also the numbers.
They should not only protect the refugee, but also the citizen of the host country.
The money saved by less immigration ( euro 100.000 per immigrant ) could be used to help the developing countries with implementation of family planning / birth control.
- In the EU we do not need a Franco-German axis again. It does not fit in with a democratic organisation. The EU council, of elected National Leaders, could be an adequate platform ( see Germany's dangerous obsession, November 9, 2017 ).
- The application of the Euro needs to be evaluated. The Euro has caused trouble in almost any country, while the benefits are unclear. Things have become very complicated while it tends to develop the Eurozone into a financial transfer zone. Before we had the Euro all countries did well. Also the effeciveness of the ECB need evaluation,
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