Несвоевременные приоритеты Киотского соглашения

Когда 16-го февраля вступит в силу Киотское соглашение, все, кто ратовал за решение проблемы глобального потепления, несомненно, будут поздравлять друг друга: во имя всеобщего блага они добились заключения самого дорогого в истории человечества международного договора. Они преуспели в превращении глобального потепления в главный нравственный тест нашего времени. Но они совершили ошибку.

Глобальное потепление реально и вызвано выбросами углекислого газа (СО2). Но существующие климатические модели показывают, что здесь мы мало что можем сделать. Даже если все страны (включая Соединенные Штаты) последуют принципам Киотского соглашения и будут придерживаться их до конца века, изменения будет практически невозможно измерить, и к 2100 году глобальное потепление удастся отложить всего на шесть лет, в то время как стоимость этих мер составит 150 миллиардов долларов в год.

От глобального потепления пострадают, главным образом, развивающиеся страны, потому что они беднее, а, следовательно, менее способны адаптироваться к климатическим изменениям. Однако к 2100 году даже по самым пессимистическим прогнозам ООН люди в развивающихся странах будут богаче, чем сегодня, а, следовательно, будут обладать большими возможностями для адаптации.

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