A protestor stand next to a 50 euro note dummy Panayiotis Tzamaros/NurPhoto/Getty Images

容克的欧洲灾难路线图

慕尼黑—一群徒步旅行者迷了路。他们想去远处山上的城堡,但脚下的道路似乎方向错了,而领头人还在不断催他们快走。

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今天的欧元区的状况就像是这样一群徒步旅行者。情况越来越清楚,引入欧元是一步错棋。单一货币导致南欧出现通胀性信用泡沫。泡沫破裂时,该地区的竞争力也随之毁灭,而北欧被要求提供巨额贷款担保、公共信用和转移支付。这些措施维持了错误的相对价格——这是这种错误的相对价格引起了泡沫——也掩盖了根本问题。

与此同时,申根协定取消了大部分欧盟成员国之间的边检,便利了移民在近几年中从较穷的亚洲和非洲大量涌向北欧福利国家。

应对这些情况,欧盟委员会主席容克在本月的欧盟盟情咨文中号召更多国家加入欧元区和申根区。容克是一个很有魅力但头脑混乱的向导,正在引导我们这个隐喻中的徒步旅行团迷路。

所有非欧元欧盟成员国(除了丹麦),都有法定义务致力于通过满足不同的“趋同标准”,逐步采用欧元。但容克显然希望加速这一进程,放松欧元区成员资格标准,并提供金融激励刺激新成员加入。

考虑到欧元区过去的问题,这一方案非常危险。如果实现的话,它有可能助推南欧所出现过的破坏性过热。事实上,在预期加入欧洲货币联盟的情况下,保加利亚、克罗地亚和罗马尼亚家庭已经外币债台高筑——主要是欧元债务——而这带来了巨大的金融困难。

当然,不难理解,鲁莽地想这些国家大肆发放欧元贷款的西方银行现在想把欧元印钞机也送给它们。如此,债务国就可以保证在必要时用自己印的现金来偿还它们的贷款,就像南欧国家在过去十年中所做的那样。

向保加利亚、克罗地亚和罗马尼亚提供国家欧元印钞权将维持私人信用流,使外币贷款得以延期。但人为的廉价信用也将导致国家退休金、政府工资和社会转移支付膨胀。而这反过来又将导致房地产市场过热和国内工资上涨,从而破坏国际竞争力。

通常,陷入这一状况的国家要采取紧急货币贬值。但欧元区成员国身份排除了这一选项,因此金融坚挺的北欧国家将再次被要求帮助欧洲央行贷款担保和金融转移支付,同时容忍新加入的欧元区成员国开动印钞机满足自我的做法。

简言之,容克的计划——加快欧元区加入流程——有可能让过去十年的混乱重演,上一次混乱始于南欧的泡沫,在希腊主权债务危机中达到高潮。

容克的申根区东扩方案也有同样的误导作用,并且无视最新的历史教训。2015年面临难民潮束手无策的情况表明,欧洲内部和外部的边境控制太少了。容克也许在想,因为欧盟与土耳其在2016年年初达成了协议,此后移民流入速度有所放缓。但欧盟边防局(Frontex)的数据显示,移民流系在奥地利和维谢格拉德国家(捷克、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克)要求马其顿建立了隔离墙后才应声下降。

此外,匈牙利-塞尔维亚边境墙和匈牙利日益收紧的罗马尼亚边境控制也有助于欧洲的稳定。但现在移民从土耳其穿越黑海进入保加利亚,如果土耳其欧盟成员资格谈判陷入停顿,移民的数量可能会变得更加巨大。因此,其他欧盟成员国应该反对一切取消现有边控措施的提案,而如果保加利亚和罗马尼亚被纳入申根区,这一幕必将成为现实。

不禁要问,是什么推动容克提出这样的提案。平心而论,欧盟委员会不可能无视巴黎、卢森堡和法兰克福的金融机构的利益。没人希望让不审慎的贷款扩大到东欧国家,助长又一场银行危机。

但容克取得成功的结果将更加糟糕。东欧的通胀性泡沫,加上边控的取消,可能动摇整个欧盟,导致新一波经济移民潮进入中欧。欧洲的徒步旅行向导应该讲讲道理,看看罗盘,认清正确的道路。

http://prosyn.org/6omKWo0/zh;

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