Gran negociación con el Irán

ESTOCOLMO – Despacio, pero con seguridad, las conversaciones del Irán con la comunidad internacional sobre su programa nuclear están acercándose al momento decisivo, pero el resultado –y esto es lo más importante– podría señalar un punto de inflexión para Oriente Medio más en general y cada vez más violento.

El acercamiento entre el Irán y sus socios negociadores sobre la fundamental cuestión nuclear es evidente. Nadie en este momento cree en serio que el Irán esté manteniendo un programa activo para fabricar armas nucleares, aunque no hace mucho era casi de todos sabido que ese país estaba a punto de tenerlas.

Ahora en lo que se centra la atención es en que el Irán necesitaría un año, más o menos, para montar un dispositivo nuclear, en caso de que decidiera hacerlo, pero el concepto de “momento de ruptura del equilibrio” es dudoso. Si se desplomara la confianza y el régimen iraní decidiera abrogar todos los acuerdos internacionales pertinentes, es muy probable que obtuviera su arma, aun cuando se bombardease repetidas veces a ese país. Así, pues, la insistencia estratégica en el “momento de ruptura del equilibrio” está fuera de lugar.

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