nest internet of things faz besharatian/Flickr

重新评估物联网

旧金山——30年前,经济学家罗伯特·索洛和史蒂芬·罗奇指出没有证据表明投资于信息技术的数十亿美元带来生产率回报引发了不小的轰动。当时企业每年购买数以千万计的电脑,微软也刚完成上市,为比尔·盖茨赚到了首个十亿美元。但在后来称为生产率悖论的理论中,国家统计数据显示生产率不仅没有加速增长;反而有增速下滑之势。 “计算机时代无处不在,”索洛打趣道,“除了没有体现在生产率统计数据。”

今天,我们似乎正处在非常相似的历史性创新时刻:将机器和物体连接到数字化网络的物联网得到了人们的热烈炒作。传感器、标签和其他连接设备意味着人类现在可以数字化、监控、度量和优化整个物理世界。就像之前的计算机一样,可能性似乎无穷无尽,人们用极端丰富的想象力来预测未来——但生产率大幅提高却尚未得到数据的支持。一年前,研究企业高德纳认为物联网在新兴技术炒作周期中正处于顶峰状态。

随着人们纷纷质疑物联网生产率革命,回顾索洛和罗奇最初提出计算机生产率悖论的情景可能会有所帮助。首先要强调企业领导人在很大程度上对生产率悖论不屑一顾,坚持认为他们真切地感受到运营和决策速度及质量的提高。信息通信技术投资持续增长,即便还不存在宏观证据来证明它的回报。

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