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怎样对抗长期停滞

米兰—世界大部,特别是发达经济体,在近几年中陷入了GDP增长缓慢且下降的模式,许多人担心这是否正在演变成半永久性状况,即所谓的“长期停滞”。答案也许是肯定的,但这个问题问得不精确,因此意义有限。毕竟,抑制增长的力量有多种类型,并非所有都不在我们的控制范围内。

诚然,可以说我们当前面临的许多增长阻力,要想在短期以不危及未来增长与稳定的方式克服非常困难,几乎是不可能的。这些持久性状况可称之为“长期停滞一”(SS1)。

我们正在经历SS1的第一个指标与技术有关。如果我们如经济学家罗伯特·戈登(Robert Gordon)所指出的那样,正在经历生产率增强型技术创新的减速过程,那么长期潜在增长将受到抑制。但即使创新不大大减速,或很快再次起势,抓住由此带来的生产率进步所需要的结构调整和行为变化也得消耗时间。

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