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Cena za přeceňování globalizace

BRUSEL – V době, kdy se světová finanční elita sjíždí do Washingtonu na výroční zasedání Mezinárodního měnového fondu a Světové banky, k jejím uším nepřeslechnutelně doléhá další zoufalé volání, aby odvrátila soumrak globalizace. Předpokládá se, že uvadající obchod musí být nepříznivým trendem, který je třeba řešit. Tento předpoklad je však přinejlepším zjednodušující.

Problém tkví v nedostatečném pochopení, co v posledních několika desetiletích táhlo růst objemu obchodu. Snahu pochopit současné zpomalení jistě nelze nikomu upřít. Nejnovější Světový ekonomický výhled MMF mu věnuje celou kapitolu.

Žádné významné nové bariéry obchodu však nebyly identifikovány. Místo toho, deklaruje MMF, je zpomalení růstu obchodu zhruba ze tří čtvrtin výsledkem „celkové slabosti ekonomické aktivity“, zejména investic. Fond také tvrdí, že určitou roli sehrály rovněž „slábnoucí tempo liberalizace obchodu a nedávné vzedmutí protekcionismu“, ačkoliv tyto faktory nelze kvantifikovat.

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