Elysee Palace Julien M. Hekimian/Stringer

欧洲:缓刑还是改革?

米兰—法国大选第一轮投票结果一如预期:中间派的马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)位居第一,获得24%的选票,险胜获得21.3%的选票的极右翼的国民阵线的勒庞(Marine Le Pen)。如果马克龙不像此前的领先者、保守派的菲永那样出现政治事故,将几乎肯定赢得5月7日的第二轮投票。欧盟看起来安全了——至少目前如此。

随着亲欧盟的马克龙向爱丽舍宫挺进——在第一轮中败北的右翼和左翼建制派都表示支持他——欧盟和欧元区最紧迫的威胁似乎已经减轻。但现在绝不是自满的时候。除非欧洲解决了增长模式中的缺陷,采取急需的改革,否则其长期生存威胁几乎肯定将继续积累。

如同时常有人指出的,法国大选和去年的其他重要投票一样,体现出建制派政党遭遇拒绝的情况:共和党的菲永名列第三,获得大约20%的选民的支持;而社会党的阿蒙(Benoît Hamon)名列第五,得票率不到6.5%。与此同时,右翼的疑欧派梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)赢得19.5%的选票,选择非传统政党候选人——勒庞、马克龙和梅朗雄的选民比例接近65%。

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