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Come correggere gli incentivi degli investimenti fissi

LONDRA – A febbraio, ho evidenziato che l’economia globale alla fine del 2016 era in una posizione ciclica più forte rispetto alle aspettative e nonostante gli stravolgimenti politici dei 12 mesi precedenti. Lo slancio positivo si è mantenuto per tutto il primo trimestre del 2017, mentre secondo gli ultimi indicatori “nowcast” la crescita del PIL mondiale si trova ora al di sopra del 4% rappresentando quindi la prestazione più elevata mai vista dal periodo precedente alla crisi finanziaria del 2008.

Ciò nonostante, alcuni osservatori (e non solo i pessimisti cronici) hanno replicato che le prove hanno comunque carattere aneddotico e che è impossibile prevedere quanto tempo durerà l’attuale contesto economico. Di certo, ci sono stati altri periodi durante la ripresa dopo la crisi del 2008 in cui vi è stata una crescita, ma si è poi esaurita rapidamente per poi diventare nuovamente lenta.

Per sostenere una crescita economica a lungo termine è infatti necessario un aumento degli investimenti aziendali. Purtroppo è più semplice a dirsi che a farsi. Gli investimenti fissi non residenziali non sono mai stati presenti nei cicli precedenti di accelerazione di breve durata specialmente nelle economie occidentali e l’assenza di questo elemento è stato un fattore determinante.

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