Financial professionals work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Drew Angerer/Getty Images

理性的非理性繁荣?

圣地亚哥—时间真是讽刺:专家们刚刚离开今年的达沃斯世界经济论坛会议,认为全球经济已经进入稳步抬升阶段,股市便见了顶。随后几周,专家们分裂为两个阵营。

一些人,包括新任美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell),认为经济基本面相当坚挺,2月初的股市下跌只是暂时回调。根据这一看法,没有东西在阻挡央行实施“美丽”(即渐进而无痛的)货币政策“正常化”。

一些人则认为基本面其实相当疲软,目前的抬升势头最终将证明是不可持续的,投资者应该将股市波动视为必要的警示信号。果真如此的话,货币和财政当局所面临的挑战便不是政策“正常化”,而是为迟早会到来的减速准备新的应对工具。

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