Activists protest outside the Capitol as the Senate holds a second day of voting on health care legislation Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images

克服民主近视

纽约—尽管指标信号相当积极,但全球经济仍然充满了风险。几乎所有风险都来自结构性挑战,因此要消除它们,必须依靠领导人的长期思维。不幸的是,今天有长期思维的领导人不多,特别是民主国家领导人。

问题在于政治周期和经济周期脱节。正常的经济周期可以持续5—7年。但据麦肯锡全球研究所(MGI)的数据,G20政治领导人的平均任期已下降到创纪录的低位3.7年(1946年时为六年)。政客们专注于赢得下一场选举,实施的常常是能给他们带来短期回报的政策,甚至不惜为此牺牲长期增长和稳定。

财政赤字的扩大便是这一权衡的体现。据美国国会预算办公室数据,按目前的趋势,美国预算赤字在未来30年将翻三倍,从2017年占GDP的2.9%增加到2047年占GDP的9.8%,原因是减税和其他取悦选民(或者同样重要地,取悦赞助人)的超预算措施。这制约了政府在教育和基础设施等领域进行前瞻性投资的能力。

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