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Säkulare Stagnation oder selbst produziertes Siechtum?

MÜNCHEN – Vor ziemlich genau acht Jahren stürzte die Lehman-Krise die Weltwirtschaft in die Rezession. Der Interbankenmarkt brach zusammen, und die gesamte industrielle Welt geriet eine schwere Krise, die schlimmste der Nachkriegszeit. Die Krise ist noch nicht wirklich überwunden, denn überall auf der Welt halten es die Notenbanken für notwendig, die Wirtschaft mit Niedrigstzinsen nahe bei Null zu stützen. Dennoch gibt es viele Volkwirtschaften, so z.B. die südeuropäischen Länder und Frankreich, die einfach nicht vom Fleck kommen. Japan hängt schon ein Viertel Jahrhundert in den Seilen.

Einige Volkswirte glauben, es zeige sich hier das schon von Alvin Hansen beschriebene Phänom der säkularen Stagnation, der selbst wiederum gedankliche Anleihen beim Gesetz des tendenziellen Falls der Profitrate von Karl Marx gemacht hat. Wegen der allmählichen Erschöpfung der rentablen Investitionsprojekte sei der natürliche Realzins immer weiter gesunken, so dass die Wirtschaft nur bei einem entsprechend fallenden Geldzins stabilisiert werden könne.

Angesichts der enormen Kreditblase, die der Krise in Japan, den USA und Südeuropa vorausging und der aggressiven Politiken der Notenbanken während der letzten Jahre habe ich starke Zweifel, ob diese Theorie stimmt. Ich sehe vielmehr einen ganz anderen Mechanismus hinter dem Geschehen, den ich "selbst-produziertes Siechtum" nenne.

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