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选择性债务大赦的时机已到

发自纽约—新型冠状病毒危机让许多公私借款人都背负上了不可持续的债务。当前我们仍处于供应冲击及其派生需求冲击的“前凯恩斯”阶段，这很可能引发一场全球性的萧条。就算病毒随后被大部分消灭，人们依然会进行预防性储蓄，企业也不愿进行资本支出，进而导致总需求进一步下降——也就是凯恩斯阶段。而尽可能货币化的财政赤字式财政刺激措施或许就是唯一能够弥补产出缺口的工具。

作为全球最重要储备货币的发行国，美国联邦政府在借入和货币化公共债务方面所面临的限制要少于其他国家。迄今为止，其疫情应对经济政策——《冠状病毒援助、救济、经济保障法案》——计划拨付2.3万亿美元用于收入支持、赠款、贷款，资产购买和其他担保。根据国会预算办公室的说法，该立法在未来十年内“只”会增加约1.7万亿美元的联邦赤字。而上面两个数字之间的差额则说明有4540亿美元将被预留去为美联储建立的各项紧急贷款机制提供担保，并假设这些担保永远不会被实际动用。

如果能做到这一点的话，那么最近在民主党控制的众议院中获得通过的另一项3万亿美元财政法案就可能被参议院以某种形式批准，而此后还可能出台更多的刺激措施。议员们都意识到如果缺少了联邦政府的债务和贷款担保或直接转移支付，许多州和地方政府根本没办法渡过危机——就算是在美国。

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