La prochaine ère de réchauffement

BEIJING – Depuis environ 100 000 ans, notre planète a connu la grande ère glaciaire et quelques épisodes glaciaires. Mais, dorénavant, la Terre étant en voie de se réchauffer de quatre degrés Celsius d’ici 2100, une « ère de réchauffement » se dessine.

Il ne s’agit pas de tenir ici des propos alarmistes. Car selon le Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC), nous devons nous attendre, d’ici 2100, à une augmentation moyenne de 3,7 °C des températures de surface, une augmentation qui se situera probablement entre 2,6 et 4,8 degrés. Le réchauffement de la planète entraînera des migrations massives à partir des zones sinistrées et exacerbera les écarts de richesse existants entre les pays. Pour reprendre les propos de David Victor, de l’Université de Californie à San Diego, la prochaine ère de réchauffement sera « laide, brutale et étouffante ».

Les émissions de gaz à effet de serre devraient atteindre un sommet de 36 milliards de tonnes cette année. Ce niveau devrait monter en flèche, car le grand essor des marchés émergents des dernières décennies, qui a sorti des milliards de gens de la pauvreté et a relevé le niveau de vie dans le monde entier, pèse de plus en plus sur l’environnement et les ressources de la planète. En réalité, d’ici 2030, trois milliards de nouveaux consommateurs de la classe moyenne, la plupart en Asie, ajouteront au fardeau des émissions.

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