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网络战能受到规管吗?

发自剑桥—冲突会否失控取决于各方对敌对状态衡量尺度进行理解和交流的能力。但不幸的是,在网络冲突方面人们对这一尺度或其与传统军事手段的对应关系尚无共识。某一方认为业已获得同意的游戏或战斗或许在另一方眼中并非如此。

十年前,美国用网络手段代替炸弹摧毁了伊朗的核浓缩设施。伊朗也以网络攻击作为回应,该攻击摧毁了沙特阿美公司的3万台计算机并并对多家美国银行的系统实施了骚扰。今年夏天,在特朗普政府实施严厉制裁后,伊朗击落了一架美国无人驾驶监视飞行器。整个过程并未造成任何人员伤亡。特朗普最初计划回敬一场导弹打击,但却在最后一刻取消了计划转而进行网络攻击,最终摧毁了伊朗军方用来瞄准油轮的关键数据库。跟上回一样,这造成了一定破坏但依然没有人员伤亡。随后伊朗直接或间接地使用无人机和巡航导弹对沙特的两个主要石油设施实施了一场精密打击。尽管最多仅有少量人员伤亡,但次袭击却展现了这类行动大大增加的成本和风险。

而上述这种感知和控制手段逐渐升级的问题其实并不新鲜。1914年8月,几个欧洲大国都预料将爆发一场短暂且直指要害的“第三次巴尔干战争”,甚至预计部队将在圣诞节前停战归国。但在6月奥地利大公爵被刺之后,奥匈帝国想狠狠教训一下塞尔维亚,德国则表态会无限支持自己的奥地利盟友,也没想到奥匈帝国会碰钉子。但是当德皇威廉二世7月底度假回来发现盟友已陷入如此境地时,他尝试将事态降级的努力为时已晚。尽管如此,他还是希望能获胜并且差点就成功了。

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