Tim Brinton

黑天鹅世界

柏林 ——在当今全球金融危机的背景下,黑天鹅的形象已经成为表面看似不可能的事情但不知何故而发生,最终导致世界起伏跌宕的象征。今年给我们提供了足够多的机会来审视周围已经存在的黑天鹅,并为即将到来的更多黑天鹅做好准备。

例如,今年十一月将要迎来柏林墙倒下20周年纪念日。1989年11月9日的夜晚,标志着苏联以及整个苏维埃帝国崩溃的开始,同时也是分裂德国和整个欧洲的两极世界终结的开始。而在此前的一年,即使发生的概率是微乎其微,仍然很少有人认为如此震惊世界的事件会发生。然而事件却发生了,世界几乎在一夜之间被改变。

在苏联和两极世界消失后,胜利的西方资本主义在唯一的世界霸主美国的领导下,称霸全球政治,甚至统治全球经济。好像没有任何事情和任何人能够阻止拥有超过之前所有财富的市场经济在全球范围内的胜利——直到2008年9月15日,这个日子是雷曼兄弟倒闭和全球金融体系走向崩溃的开始。

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